UFC 303 Odds & Picks: Longshot Sleeper Bets (2024)
UFC 303 may have lost its biggest fight after Conor McGregor (broken toe) pulled out of his match against Michael Chandler, but it is still a stellar card. It is star-studded from top-to-bottom and features several veterans that never fail to entertain the fans. The main event between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka is the best possible fight to replace the lost one, so it should be a great night of action.
What is a fight card without a few longshot props? Do not go overboard and wager a large amount on these, but these will be worth up to half a unit. I will give you a couple of longshots that I think are worth a stab on this card to get the juices flowing throughout the night.
UFC 303 Longshot Prop Bet (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Charles Jourdain (-118) vs. Jean Silva (-102)
I have another article detailing some analysis of this fight, which is one of my favorite bets on the preliminary card, and you can find it on my author page. I will be brief here, so check out the other article for more details. Jourdain is a submission wizard and capable of winning a fight at any second by a choke. Jean Silva has never been submitted in his career, but could try and wrestle at some point in this fight, which is not a wise decision. It could happen in the third round when Jourdain always picks up the pace, and Silva will attempt to neutralize him. It is worth a small stab to bet on Jourdain winning by submission, especially at +800.
Bet: Charles Jourdain To Win by Submission (+800)
Brian Ortega (+120) vs. Diego Lopes (-142)
I also wrote an in-depth preview about this fight and as I noted there, Lopes has a glaring hole in his game, which is being controlled on the mat. Ortega controlled Yair Rodriguez for over five minutes in his last fight and landed three out of six takedowns. The path to victory for Ortega is to wrestle Lopes and dominate him via top control. Lopes is a tough opponent to submit, but anyone can get caught if they get tired. The longer Ortega beats up Lopes from top control with elbows and punches, the more likely “T-City†can find an arm triangle or a choke if he can transition to his back.
The odds for Ortega to win by knockout or TKO are almost identical for him to win by submission. However, Ortega is far more likely to find a submission than a knockout. Lopes is as tough as they come and will eat a lot of punishment. The way to finish a guy like that is to catch them when they are beat up and tired. My official prediction is an arm triangle in the third round, but play it safer. Ortega to win by submission is well over +550 or higher on most sportsbooks and is worth a small risk.
Bet: Brian Ortega To Win by Submission (+650)