UFC 303 Odds & Picks: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson (2024)
Despite all of the turnover on the UFC 303 card, this event is shaping up to be a highly-anticipated night in the promotion. The second fight on the main card comes in the Women’s Bantamweight division, as Mayra Bueno Silva (#3) takes on Macy Chiasson (#7).
Below, I’ll touch on each fighter’s recent form, dive into their statistics and wrap things up with my favorite bet for the bout.
UFC 303: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Mayra Bueno Silva (10-3-1, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: L-NC-W-W-W
Bueno Silva returns to the octagon after suffering a unanimous decision loss to Raquel Pennington in a title fight back in January. The 32-year-old was out-struck 134-69 in the championship bout, but she did win the takedown battle 3-1. You have to go back to February 2023 to find Bueno Silva’s last win, a submission (Kneebar) victory against Lina Lansberg. This was a part of a three-fight win streak, where she also took care of Wu Yanan (U-DEC) and Stephanie Egger (SUB – Armbar), more recently.
Stylistically, there’s no denying that Bueno Silva is a submission artist, as seven of her 10 professional wins have come by tap. She’s throwing 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes. As for her wrestling, the Brazilian is landing 0.68 takedowns per 15 minutes (38% success rate) while stuffing 68% of opposing attempts. Bueno Silva’s dishing out 3.84 significant strikes per minute while absorbing an inflated 4.86 strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Macy Chiasson (10-3-0)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-L-W
Chiasson continues to climb the divisional rankings, and she’s looking to build on a submission (Rear Naked Choke) victory against Pannie Kianzad last time out. She’s alternated wins and losses over her last five fights, also beating Marion Reneau (U-DEC) and Norma Dumont (S-DEC) while dropping bouts to Raquel Pennington (SUB – Guillotine Choke) and Irene Aldana (KO/TKO – Kick). Circling back on the Kianzad victory, it took just 66 seconds for Chiasson to lock in the RNC and get the submission.
Chiasson has notched nine professional victories, and they’re well-distributed, collecting three submissions, two knockouts, and four decisions. However, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Krav Maga brown belt is reliant on her grappling, landing 2.38 takedowns per 15 minutes (37% success rate) while throwing 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. She’s fending off 62% of opposing takedown attempts. As for her striking, Chiasson is landing 3.53 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.53 strikes.
Bottom Line
The oddsmakers have this Women’s Bantamweight bout priced as a complete toss-up, pricing each woman at -110. This should be a fantastic fight, and I expect some excellent grappling exchanges.
That said, I think I have to give an experienced Bueno Silva the edge. I’ll back her at coin-flip odds. Bueno Silva is coming off of fights against Pennington and Holly Holm, so I feel confident saying she’s the more battle-tested fighter. Chiasson did fight Pennington back in 2021, but she was submitted (Guillotine Choke) in the second round. Bueno Silva took her the full five rounds in a title fight.
Both brawlers are brown belts in BJJ, but considering Bueno Silva has seven submission victories, I think she’s more comfortable on the canvas. This fight will likely make its way to the floor, and that’s an area where the Brazilian has proven time and time again that she’s dominant. I’m backing Bueno Silva to get back in the win column on Saturday.
Bet: Mayra Bueno Silva Moneyline (-110)