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UFC 303 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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UFC 303 is shaping up to be another electric event from the fight capital of the world. There’s no shortage of ways to get some skin in the game. I’m heading to the prop sheet for Saturday’s main card, where I’ve narrowed in on three prop bets.

UFC 303 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alex Pereira (-142) vs. ​​Jiří Procházka (+120) 

All roads lead to a Light Heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira (C) and Jiří Procházka (#1). Pereira beat Procházka to claim the title in November 2023. This will be the Brazilian’s second defense of the belt.

The first fight didn’t reach the third round as Pereira was able to secure a knockout win (elbows) just 9:08 into the bout. The champion won the striking battle 38-30. Taking that into account, I think we’re getting a deflated number on Procházka’s significant strike total. If this fight even sniffs the third round we should soar over this total of 43.5 strikes. 

Procházka has eclipsed this threshold in three of his last four fights, with the only loss being the championship tilt against Pereira. I think we could see the Czech-born brawler try to work in some wrestling this time around. He landed a takedown in the first fight, and if he’s successful this time around, it could lead to some ground-and-pound action, helping to guide us over the total. 

Bet: Jiří Procházka Over 43.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)

Brian Ortega (+120) vs. Diego Lopes (-142) 

The co-main event should be an absolute banger in the Featherweight division as Brian Ortega (#3) squares off against Diego Lopes (#14). Lopes is a short -142 moneyline favorite, and he’s looking to collect his fourth straight victory. Ortega’s coming off a submission win (arm triangle) over Yair Rodriguez in February.

Ortega has failed to reach three takedowns in 10 of his last 12 fights (83.3%), so it’s a bit of a head-scratcher as to why this number’s sitting at 2.5. Furthermore, in the two fights where he did secure three takedowns, he landed exactly three takedowns, so it’s not like he was flying over the total. One of the fights that T-City went over was a five-round fight against Chan Sung Jung. It’s important to note Saturday’s bout is a standard three-round tilt.

Now, stylistically, it probably favors Ortega to look for takedowns as Lopes is pretty dangerous on his feet. However, the Brazilian is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and he’s grown up wrestling and perfecting his craft. As for his professional resume, Lopes is fending off 42% of opposing takedown attempts. I expect this fight to remain upright and I think this total for Ortega’s takedowns is a bit lofty. Give me the under.

Bet: Brian Ortega Under 2.5 Takedowns Landed (-115)

Mayra Bueno Silva (-110) vs. Macy Chiasson (-110) 

The second fight on the main card comes in the Women’s Bantamweight division as Mayra Bueno Silva (#3) takes on Macy Chiasson (#7). The oddsmakers have this bout priced as a complete toss-up, listing each woman at -110. 

I think it’s great value to get a +110 payout for this fight to not reach the final horn. Starting with Bueno Silva, seven of her 10 professional victories have come by submission. She has also added a knockout win, giving her a finish rate of 80% in winning tilts. As for Chiasson, five of her nine (55.6%) professional wins haven’t reached the judges’ scorecards (three submissions, two knockouts). 

There’s a very good chance this fight makes it to the canvas as each brawler leans on her grappling and submissions quite heavily. Chiasson is landing an elevated 2.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Bueno Silva sits at 0.68. With two high-level submission artists going at it, I think someone gets stuck. I’ll take a shot with the +110 payout that comes with the fight not to go the full 15 minutes. 

Bet: Fight to go the Distance: No (+110)

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