UFC 304 Odds & Picks: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett (2024)
The UFC packs its bags and heads across the pond for a massive card in Manchester, England. Just prior to the two title fights comes an intriguing bout in the Lightweight division, where Paddy Pimblett looks to break into the rankings against 15th-ranked King Green. Below, I'll touch on each fighter's recent form, dive into their statistics, and finish up with my favorite bet for the fight.
UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: King Green (32-15-1, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-W-NC
King Green got back in the win column the last time out, putting on a striking clinic against Jim Miller. Green out-struck his opponent 186-57 en route to a three-round, unanimous-decision victory. Just prior, the American had been knocked out by Jalin Turner (Punches) in the first round in December 2023. It has been an up-and-down career for the veteran, but he'll be looking to spoil Paddy Pimblett's big night in front of his home crowd on Saturday.
To back it up, the 186-strike outburst against Miller wasn't an anomaly. Green is known for his striking, where he averages 6.45 significant strikes per minute; he's absorbing just 3.75 strikes per minute. The 37-year-old is still active in the takedown department, landing 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 38% success rate and stuffing 74% of opposing attempts. It's worth noting that Green is a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Betting Profile: Paddy Pimblett (21-3-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Paddy Pimblett remains undefeated in the UFC promotion, where he's maintained a perfect 5-0 record since storming onto the scene. Sure, we have the questionable decision win over Jared Gordon in December 2022, but Paddy the Baddy followed it up with a no-doubter against Tony Ferguson a year later. The Liverpool native out-struck the aging Ferguson 106-62, while also landing a takedown. Prior to Gordon and Ferguson, Pimblett handled Luigi Vendramini (KO/TKO - Punches) in his debut, Kazula Vargas (SUB - Rear Naked Choke), and Jordan Leavitt (Rear Naked Choke).
The flashy Englishman is landing 5.13 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.70 strikes. As for his wrestling numbers, Pimblett's averaging 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes (25% success rate) while fending off 56% of opposing attempts. The 29-year-old is a second-degree black belt in BJJ.
Bottom Line
This is a very intriguing matchup for UFC 304, and the betting markets have actually shifted in favor of King Green. The American is a slight -122 moneyline favorite, while the hometown kid comes back at +102 to get his hand raised.
It's probably safe to say that Pimblett has the edge in terms of the "chaos factor." He's flashy and a bit unorthodox, and that combined with his home-arena advantage does make you want to back him.
However, in my opinion, the best bet for this bout is King Green on the moneyline at -122. For starters, he's way more battled-tested and has a sizable edge in experience at 37 years old. Green has shared the octagon with some absolute savages, including Islam Makhachev, Drew Dober, Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and many more.
Green is a much more polished boxer, which I think is the biggest factor in this matchup. The American is landing 6.45 significant strikes per minute at a 52% clip. He's also pretty elusive, as only 38% of his opponent's strikes land. As for Pimblett, he's not slippery at all, getting hit with an outrageous 59% of opposing strikes. An experienced brawler of Green's caliber should be able to exploit this against a younger fighter.
I think it's going to be a great fight and as I mentioned, Pimblett's chaotic nature could throw a wrench into things. However, I'll ride with the tried-and-true Green to spoil the night in Manchester.
Bet: King Green Moneyline (-122)