UFC 305 Odds & Picks: Longshot Sleeper Bets (2024)
The UFC is headed down under for an epic middleweight title fight between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. The promotion will be at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, with a stacked card. The best of City Kickboxing will be on display along with several other Australian natives. The fights will begin at the normal time for the east coast, and the fighters will be up bright and early in Australia. The prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. EST and the main card starts on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. EST.
This card should be as entertaining as it gets, so let's see if we can make it worth our while. There are a couple of spots on this card I like for some longshot bets, and I will detail them below. Hopefully one or both of them cashes, and we take home some big money in the process!
UFC 305 Longshot Prop Bet (2024)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tai Tuivasa (+180) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (–218)
Tai Tuivasa is a knockout artist and should thrive in front of his home crowd. He is the type of fighter who will receive a big boost of adrenaline from the roar of the crowd, and he could use that to his advantage against Jarizinho Rozenstruik. Rozenstruik is more of a technician in the heavyweight division and does not rely on his power as much as Tuivasa. The problem for Tuivasa is that he is on a four-fight losing streak, and his confidence is not as high as it once was. Meanwhile, Rozenstruik just had a dominant performance over Shamil Gaziev, who lost his undefeated record after getting knocked out by Rozenstruik.
This number is too wide for this matchup. Rozenstruik has been knocked out twice in the UFC, and both came in the first round. Tuivasa has five first-round knockouts since entering the UFC and two in the second round. The two in the second round were against Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai, both notably tough opponents. Rozenstruik is not known for having a chin and could easily get slept with one punch from Tuivasa.
Bet: Tai Tuivasa To Win By KO in Round 1 (+450)
Mateusz Gamrot (–340) vs. Dan Hooker (+270)
I wrote a full preview for this fight, which you can find here, and I gave it to Gamrot to win by decision. While I think that is the most likely scenario and probably the right bet, I want to sprinkle in a little money on Dan Hooker to win by knockout. I mentioned in the preview that Gamrot has been knocked down several times in his career but never finished. To be exact, he has been knocked down five times in his career against five different opponents, with the most notable knockdown coming in his last fight against Rafael Dos Anjos.
RDA timed a perfect knee when Gamrot shot a takedown and hurt him badly. Gamrot immediately shot another takedown, which was stuffed, and Dos Anjos followed up with a left-right hook combination that knocked him down. Gamrot grabbed ahold of a leg and worked his way into the clinch, which allowed him to recover.
Dan Hooker has better and more powerful knees than RDA and could put Gamrot's lights out. The other problem with Gamrot's wrestle-heavy approach is that it is extremely predictable. Hooker will be trying to land knees and uppercuts when Gamrot shoots, which is why I want to sprinkle Hooker by knockout as a slight hedge.
Bet: Dan Hooker To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+800)