Top 10 UFC 305 Picks & Predictions: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya (2024)
The UFC is headed down under for an epic middleweight title fight between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. The promotion will be at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, with a stacked card. The best of City Kickboxing will be on display along with several other Australian natives.
The fights will begin at the normal time for the east coast, and the fighters will be up bright and early in Australia. The prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. EST, and the main card starts on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. EST.
Here are our top picks and predictions for UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya.
UFC 305 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
The main event is going to be a banger, and the oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook agree, pricing the challenger as a slim -120 moneyline favorite. Dricus Du Plessis comes back at +100 to defend his title and get his hand raised for a 10th straight time.
It's never easy for me to click the button and fade Israel Adesanya. Heck, I think this might be the first time I've actually ever bet against the former champion. However, this feels like a spot where betting on a current champion with an even-money payout makes sense. I'm going to ride with Du Plessis to retain the Middleweight strap on Saturday night.
There's this rumor that the South African has a cardio issue, but I believe he has put those allegations to bed. Between going 25 minutes with Sean Strickland and receiving a nasal surgery to open up his airways, this guy clearly has what it takes to compete in the championship rounds.
He also has a hell of a resume, where he's run through some of the top middleweights in the world. Ultimately, I just don't see too many flaws in Du Plessis' game right now. He's a heavy-handed striker who can mix in kicks with his kickboxing background. The champ also possesses fantastic takedown ability, and his diverse fighting style makes him a bigger threat to Izzy. It's worth noting that 10 of his 21 professional wins have come by submission (9 KO, 2 DEC).
As long as Du Plessis can keep his patience and avoid getting knocked out, he should win this bout. The 30-year-old hasn't been knocked out since 2018, and it's safe to say he's leaps and bounds ahead of his skill level six years ago. This should be an electric main event, and I won't be surprised if Adesanya wins, but I definitely think Du Plessis is in his prime and has the better overall chance. I'm riding with the champ as a slight underdog.
Bet: Dricus Du Plessis Moneyline (+100)
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
This matchup is interesting because Hooker should be the better striker, and he has a five-inch reach advantage, but I do not think he will be able to utilize it. Gamrot has yet to fight an opponent and not land a takedown, and Hooker will have a tough time stopping all the takedowns attempted. Hooker will likely employ knees and kicks to stop the shots from Gamrot, but that could lead to clinch work from Gamrot, where he can find a trip along the fence.
Hooker will have an uphill battle this entire fight, but he will have the crowd behind him. However, that may not be enough, because Gamrot has never been finished in his career, but he has been knocked down several times. Hooker will have to land a massive knee to put Gamrot's lights out, and I do not see it happening.
Bet: Mateusz Gamrot To Win By Decision (-160)
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
Alexandre Pantoja showed the path to victory against Steve Erceg, and I think Kara-France can exploit that same weakness. Pantoja landed nine takedowns over five rounds against Erceg and controlled him for over eight minutes on the mat. Kara-France has been shown the game plan to beat Erceg, but can he implement it?
Kara-France was able to land one takedown in his title fight against Brandon Moreno but could not control him on the mat and he will have to control Erceg on the mat to win this fight. Erceg is a more technical boxer, while Kara-France has the power advantage. He has not been hurt since joining the UFC, but Kara-France could be the one to land a damaging shot due to his one-punch knockout power. Erceg should be able to win a decision in this fight due to his technical boxing, ability to create angles, and cardio.
Bet: Steve Erceg (-162)
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
"The Leech" has never been knocked out in his MMA career, but Prates has a good chance to do it on Saturday. Prates is long and utilizes his reach to his advantage. He has solid knees and trains with the Fighting Nerds, who have been entering fights with excellent game plans recently. This is a big step up in competition for Prates, but I expect him to be ready for the challenge.
Prates has defended 80% of takedowns in the UFC and will likely have to defend some against Jingliang. His lengthy reach advantage should help him defend takedowns and maybe land a knee. He should do a good job of staying on the outside, where he’ll be hitting "The Leech" with the end of his punches and avoiding any big punches coming his way. Prates is working his way into the top-15 of the division, and a win over "The Leech" would go a long way. I will be on Prates to win by a decision because Jingliang has proven to be a tough opponent, but the two-year layoff is a concern.
Bet: Carlos Prates To Win By Decision (+250)
Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook view the 12th-ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik as a sizable -218 moneyline favorite in this main card showdown. The 10th-ranked Tai Tuivasa comes back at +180 to snap his four-fight slide and get his hand raised.
Well, someone's definitely going to sleep in this fight. Both of these heavyweights are hunting knockouts every time they step into the octagon, and I don't think that'll change on Saturday night. Tai Tuivasa has seen his last 10 fights stopped early, while Rozenstruik's last four have avoided the judges' scorecards.
Typically, I'd look to make a case for the underdog at a long price in a fight where it's two heavyweights strictly looking to knock one another out. However, not many statistics, nor Tuivasa's recent form, favor him. Aside from having a "home-cage advantage," since he's fighting in his own country, not much favors the Australian.
Tuivasa hasn't been sharp recently, dropping his last four fights. He doesn't have an edge in reach (75" vs. 78"), and he's also getting hit with 5.05 significant strikes per minute. Tuivasa's opponents are landing 57% of their significant strike attempts! That's not a great formula when squaring off against a guy who's 14-5 with 13 knockout wins. The inability to avoid getting hit is ultimately what has me shying away from backing Tuivasa at +180.
I think the -218 price with Rozenstruik is warranted, and I expect him to bury Tuivasa in this contest. Once the market opens up, I'm locking in Jair Rozenstruik to win by knockout.
Bet: Jairzinho Rozenstruik By Knockout
Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
The prelims conclude with a Heavyweight headliner between Junior Tafa and Valter Walker. Walker's coming off of his first professional loss, a 15-minute decision defeat at the hands of Lukasz Brzeski. As for Tafa, he was also defeated in his most recent fight, losing to Marcos Rogerio de Lima in a second-round knockout (Kick).
I'm going to play the underdog, Valter Walker, in this contest. I'm not sold on either of these guys as top contenders in the division, but Walker seems to be the more well-rounded brawler. He landed four takedowns in the losing effort against Brzeski, which signals to me that he's more than a one-trick pony looking for knockouts.
Tafa boasts a respectable 81% takedown defense rate, but we've seen him get taken down three times in his last three fights. Walker has six knockout wins and a submission to his resume, and I can see him notching another finish on Saturday. Tafa's landing only 1.81 significant strikes per minute, and his grappling game is non-existent. I think Walker gets back in the win column.
Bet: Valter Walker Moneyline (+110)
Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos
Just prior to the aforementioned Heavyweight bout, we have a fascinating Featherweight fight between Josh Culibao and Ricardo Ramos. Both men are riding two-fight losing streaks entering Saturday's action.
In my opinion, this one boils down to the fact that Ramos has the wrestling superiority in the matchup. He's averaging 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 60% success rate. The Brazilian is also throwing 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and he has accumulated seven submission victories throughout his 16-6-0 professional career (4 KO, 5 DEC).
This isn't a great recipe for Culibao, who brings a modest 67% takedown defense rate. The Australian has been taken down seven times in his last two fights against Lerone Murphy (U-DEC) and Danny Silva (S-DEC). Murphy amassed 7:38 worth of control time, while Silva added 5:28. In these short three-round fights, having top control can easily win you a round, which can ultimately steal you a fight. Due to the edge in grappling, I have to roll with the BJJ black belt, Ramos, as a slight underdog.
Bet: Ricardo Ramos Moneyline (+120)
Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos
The only ranked fighter on the undercard is Casey O'Neill, who enters as the 15th-ranked Flyweight in the women's division. O'Neill's currently in the midst of a two-fight losing streak, and she's priced as an underdog on Saturday. Her opponent is Luana Santos of Brazil, who's a perfect 3-0-0 since joining the UFC promotion.
Keeping with the theme, I'm going to ride with the underdog once again. While Santos has yet to suffer a blemish in the UFC, she's not nearly as battle-tested as O'Neill. The Scottish-Australian has fought Ariane Da Silva (#13), and while it was a losing effort (SUB - Armbar), it's still a top-15 opponent. O'Neill also has a win over the legendary Roxanne Modafferi (S-DEC), where she out-struck her 229-120 over 15 minutes.
Speaking of striking, O'Neill is an insanely high-volume striker, averaging 8.41 significant strikes per minute. She owns a 66% takedown defense rate, which is paramount as she squares off against Santos, who lands 2.03 takedowns per minute. Ultimately, I think O'Neill will get back in the win column here. She has the edge on the feet, but she's also a submission threat in her own right, boasting a brown belt in BJJ while having two submission wins. I think it's worth a shot on O'Neill, who's fighting in front of her home crowd.
Bet: Casey O'Neill Moneyline (+130)
Top Longshot Sleeper Pick of UFC 305
Mateusz Gamrot (–340) vs. Dan Hooker (+270)
I wrote a full preview for this fight, which you can find here, and I gave it to Gamrot to win by decision. While I think that is the most likely scenario and probably the right bet, I want to sprinkle in a little money on Dan Hooker to win by knockout. I mentioned in the preview that Gamrot has been knocked down several times in his career but never finished. To be exact, he has been knocked down five times in his career against five different opponents, with the most notable knockdown coming in his last fight against Rafael Dos Anjos.
RDA timed a perfect knee when Gamrot shot a takedown and hurt him badly. Gamrot immediately shot another takedown, which was stuffed, and Dos Anjos followed up with a left-right hook combination that knocked him down. Gamrot grabbed ahold of a leg and worked his way into the clinch, which allowed him to recover.
Dan Hooker has better and more powerful knees than RDA and could put Gamrot's lights out. The other problem with Gamrot's wrestle-heavy approach is that it is extremely predictable. Hooker will be trying to land knees and uppercuts when Gamrot shoots, which is why I want to sprinkle Hooker by knockout as a slight hedge.
Bet: Dan Hooker To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+800)
Top UFC 305 Prop Bet Pick
All roads lead to a main event between Dricus Du Plessis (C) and Israel Adesanya (#2) in the Middleweight division. Adesanya is a slim -115 favorite to win back the championship belt, while Du Plessis comes back at -105 to find success in his first title defense.
I think there's a very good chance someone gets knocked out in this fight. Both fighters have seen two of their last three fights end in knockouts. For Adesanya, he split a two-fight saga with Alex Pereira, getting KO'd once before securing a knockout of his own in the rematch. As for Du Plessis, there's no denying that he has the knockout ability considering he's 7-0-0 in the UFC with four knockouts, two decision wins, and a submission.
Stylistically, Adesanya's best chance to win this fight is by hunting a knockout. If he can bait Du Plessis in and use his precision striking to land a big blow, he can win his belt back. Izzy's 24-3-0 in his professional career, and 16 of those victories have come by KO. As for Du Plessis, the heavy-handed kickboxer is 21-2-0 in his career with nine knockouts. There's bad blood between these two brawlers, and securing a knockout win would be the perfect way to prove their respective points. Let's take a flier on the fight ending in a knockout.
Bet: Exact Method of Victory: Knockout (+110)