UFC 305 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
We have an absolutely loaded UFC 305 card this weekend, featuring a championship fight and three ranked bouts on the main card. However, this event is littered with compelling fights, including the seven preliminary fights. Below I'll dive into three of the prelims from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the canvas Saturday.
The early prelims get started at 6:30 p.m. ET, and UFC 305 will take place at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.
UFC 305 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Junior Tafa (-130) vs. Valter Walker (+110)
The prelims conclude with a Heavyweight headliner between Junior Tafa and Valter Walker. Walker's coming off of his first professional loss, a 15-minute decision defeat at the hands of Lukasz Brzeski. As for Tafa, he was also defeated in his most recent fight, losing to Marcos Rogerio de Lima in a second-round knockout (Kick).
I'm going to play the underdog, Valter Walker, in this contest. I'm not sold on either of these guys as top contenders in the division, but Walker seems to be the more well-rounded brawler. He landed four takedowns in the losing effort against Brzeski, which signals to me that he's more than a one-trick pony looking for knockouts.
Tafa boasts a respectable 81% takedown defense rate, but we've seen him get taken down three times in his last three fights. Walker has six knockout wins and a submission to his resume, and I can see him notching another finish on Saturday. Tafa's landing only 1.81 significant strikes per minute, and his grappling game is non-existent. I think Walker gets back in the win column.
Bet: Valter Walker Moneyline (+110)
Josh Culibao (-142) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+120)
Just prior to the aforementioned Heavyweight bout, we have a fascinating Featherweight fight between Josh Culibao and Ricardo Ramos. Both men are riding two-fight losing streaks entering Saturday's action.
In my opinion, this one boils down to the fact that Ramos has the wrestling superiority in the matchup. He's averaging 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 60% success rate. The Brazilian is also throwing 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and he has accumulated seven submission victories throughout his 16-6-0 professional career (4 KO, 5 DEC).
This isn't a great recipe for Culibao, who brings a modest 67% takedown defense rate. The Australian has been taken down seven times in his last two fights against Lerone Murphy (U-DEC) and Danny Silva (S-DEC). Murphy amassed 7:38 worth of control time, while Silva added 5:28. In these short three-round fights, having top control can easily win you a round, which can ultimately steal you a fight. Due to the edge in grappling, I have to roll with the BJJ black belt, Ramos, as a slight underdog.
Bet: Ricardo Ramos Moneyline (+120)
Casey O'Neill (+130) vs. Luana Santos (-155)
The only ranked fighter on the undercard is Casey O'Neill, who enters as the 15th-ranked Flyweight in the women's division. O'Neill's currently in the midst of a two-fight losing streak, and she's priced as an underdog on Saturday. Her opponent is Luana Santos of Brazil, who's a perfect 3-0-0 since joining the UFC promotion.
Keeping with the theme, I'm going to ride with the underdog once again. While Santos has yet to suffer a blemish in the UFC, she's not nearly as battle-tested as O'Neill. The Scottish-Australian has fought Ariane Da Silva (#13), and while it was a losing effort (SUB - Armbar), it's still a top-15 opponent. O'Neill also has a win over the legendary Roxanne Modafferi (S-DEC), where she out-struck her 229-120 over 15 minutes.
Speaking of striking, O'Neill is an insanely high-volume striker, averaging 8.41 significant strikes per minute. She owns a 66% takedown defense rate, which is paramount as she squares off against Santos, who lands 2.03 takedowns per minute. Ultimately, I think O'Neill will get back in the win column here. She has the edge on the feet, but she's also a submission threat in her own right, boasting a brown belt in BJJ while having two submission wins. I think it's worth a shot on O'Neill, who's fighting in front of her home crowd.
Bet: Casey O'Neill Moneyline (+130)