UFC 305 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
The UFC packs its bags and heads down under this weekend, where Dricus Du Plessis (C) and Israel Adesanya (#2) will square off for the Middleweight championship of the world. There's clearly no shortage of ways to get in on the action from a betting standpoint, including heading to the prop sheet! Below I'll dive into my three favorite prop bets for UFC 305 from Perth, Australia.
UFC 305 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dricus Du Plessis (-105) vs. Israel Adesanya (-115)
All roads lead to a main event between Dricus Du Plessis (C) and Israel Adesanya (#2) in the Middleweight division. Adesanya is a slim -115 favorite to win back the championship belt, while Du Plessis comes back at -105 to find success in his first title defense.
I think there's a very good chance someone gets knocked out in this fight. Both fighters have seen two of their last three fights end in knockouts. For Adesanya, he split a two-fight saga with Alex Pereira, getting KO'd once before securing a knockout of his own in the rematch. As for Du Plessis, there's no denying that he has the knockout ability considering he's 7-0-0 in the UFC with four knockouts, two decision wins, and a submission.
Stylistically, Adesanya's best chance to win this fight is by hunting a knockout. If he can bait Du Plessis in and use his precision striking to land a big blow, he can win his belt back. Izzy's 24-3-0 in his professional career, and 16 of those victories have come by KO. As for Du Plessis, the heavy-handed kickboxer is 21-2-0 in his career with nine knockouts. There's bad blood between these two brawlers, and securing a knockout win would be the perfect way to prove their respective points. Let's take a flier on the fight ending in a knockout.
Bet: Exact Method of Victory: Knockout (+110)
Kai Kara-France (+136) vs. Steve Erceg (-162)
The co-main event should be a thrilling fight as Kai Kara-France (#4) and Steve Erceg (#7) go toe-to-toe in the Flyweight division. Erceg's coming off a title shot defeat, and he's a decently-sized favorite at -162. KKF comes back at +136 to snap his two-fight slide.
Erceg has kind of come out of nowhere and climbed the UFC rankings, despite not really taking on any of the juggernauts of the Flyweight division. This will be another big test for the Australian, and he’ll definitely earn my respect if he can notch a win over the always-dangerous Kai Kara-France.
However, until Erceg proves that he can beat a top contender in the division, I'm forced to fade him in some capacity. I'm playing the Under on his significant strikes this weekend. For starters, Kara-France is untouchable in the octagon. He boasts a strike defense rate of 65%, meaning only 35% of his opponents' strikes find a home. The Kiwi hasn't conceded more than 58 significant strikes in any of his last seven fights, one of which was a five-round split-decision loss against Amir Albazi (43 significant strikes landed) in his most recent bout. Ultimately, I'm just not there yet on Erceg, and there's no denying that KKF is the more battle-tested brawler. He's evasive and quick, which should help him avoid getting hit 63 times.
Bet: Steve Erceg Under 62.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
Tai Tuivasa (+180) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-218)
We have a Heavyweight bout scheduled for Saturday's main card, as Tai Tuivasa (#10) squares off against Jairzinho Rozenstruik (#12). Rozenstruik is a sizable -218 moneyline favorite, while Tuivasa sits at +180 to snap his four-fight skid.
This should be a highly entertaining bout, but I also think it'll be a very quick contest. Neither of these fighters possesses any ground game, each averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. That signals to me that they're simply in there searching for knockouts. That's proven when diving deeper into the fight logs, where we see Rozenstruik is 14-5-0 with 13 knockout wins and two knockout losses. Tuivasa is 14-7-0 with 13 knockout wins and three knockout defeats.
The big thing that stands out to me is Tuivasa's inability to avoid getting hit. His strike defense rate is just 43%, meaning 57% of his opponents' strike attempts land! That's not a great formula in any division, let alone the Heavyweight division where guys possess massive knockout power. Someone's going to sleep in this fight, and I think it's coming earlier rather than later. I'll say this fight doesn't start the second round at -135.
Bet: Fight to Start Round 2: No (-135)