The UFC stays in the Fight Capital of the World this week, where Dana White will look to put on a massive show at Sphere for UFC 306. This card is loaded from top to bottom, including this ranked, main-card contest in the Featherweight division between Brian Ortega (#3) and Diego Lopes (#13). Below, I'll dive into each fighter's recent form and statistics before wrapping up with the betting odds and my favorite wager for the tilt.
UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Brian Ortega (16-3-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: W-L-L-W-L
It has been a wild ride for Brian Ortega over the last six years. The 33-year-old has suffered all three of his professional losses over the span; they came at the hands of Max Holloway (TKO/KO - Doctor's Stoppage), Alexander Volkanovski (U-DEC), and most recently Yair Rodriguez (KO/TKO - Shoulder Injury). Ortega dislocated his shoulder facing Rodriguez, forcing him to have surgery and miss 18 months of action. The American had a triumphant return to the octagon in February 2024, beating Rodriguez in a rematch via third-round submission (Arm Triangle). He was out-struck 55-28 in the bout and suffered a knock down, but T-City landed three takedowns and stuck his opponent with his lone submission attempt.
Statistically, Ortega is landing a modest 4.07 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing an elevated 6.54 strikes per minute, although it looks like the strikes absorbed mark is inflated due to his losses to Holloway (290 strikes absorbed) and Volk (214 strikes absorbed). As for his grappling, the first-degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt is averaging 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 27% success rate, while defending 57% of opposing attempts.
Betting Profile: Diego Lopes (25-6-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-L
It was roughly two and a half months ago when Diego Lopes last made this walk. Lopes was originally scheduled to fight Brian Ortega on June 29th, but T-City was forced to pull out due to an illness. That paved the way for Dan Ige to take the fight on with literally only a few hours notice. Lopes handled Ige via unanimous decision, out-striking him 49-42 and racking up 4:06 of ground control courtesy of one takedown. The victory marked the Brazilian fighter’s fourth straight win, with previous victories against Gavin Tucker (SUB - Arm Triangle), Pat Sabatini (KO - Punches), and Sodiq Yusuff (KO - Punches), most recently.
Lopes also has an inverted strike disparity; he's landing only 3.24 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.08 strikes per minute. As for his grappling, the 29-year-old is averaging only 0.33 takedowns per 15 minutes (25% success rate). The BJJ black belt is defending 46% of opposing takedown attempts. It's worth noting that Lopes is a bona fide submission artist, winning 12 of his 25 fights by submission and throwing a lofty 3.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Bottom Line
Diego Lopes is the 13th-ranked Featherweight in the UFC and he's looking to make a massive jump in the rankings as he squares off against third-ranked Brian Ortega. The betting market views the Brazilian as a sizable -185 moneyline favorite, while Ortega comes back at +154 to get his hand raised.
I'm just not ready to lay a -185 price with Lopes in this fight. Sure, he's shown potential and looks like he could be a serious threat in the UFC. However, this will easily be the toughest challenge of his career. Lopes did fight against Movsar Evloev in his UFC debut, but it was a losing effort via unanimous decision and Evloev, who's currently the sixth-ranked Featherweight, out-struck him 88-37 while landing four takedowns. Furthermore, Lopes barely edged out Dan Ige in June, and Ige took that fight on with just a few hours notice.
Now you want me to lay -185 juice against a guy of Brian Ortega's caliber? I don't think so. We're riding with the underdog in this spot solely based on the price. T-City has minimal blemishes on his resume, aside from dropping championship fights to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, and exiting due to injury against Yair Rodriguez. There's absolutely no shame in losing those fights.
Ortega's been in the cage with the best of 'em, and I think his veteran experience is going to give him an edge against the up-and-coming Lopes. In my opinion, it's worth taking a flier on Ortega with this sizable +154 payout.
Bet: Brian Ortega Moneyline (+154)
