UFC 307 Predictions: Longshot Bets & Sleepers (2024)
UFC 307 does not have the huge names of MMA, but it is packed with veterans of the sport. The first fight is between Tim Means and Court McGee, which will surely be a banger. The card features fighters who have entertained fans in the UFC for years, and I expect a fantastic card. Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr. will face off in the co-main event for the light heavyweight belt to cap off the night. The card begins at 6:30 pm, and the pay-per-view main card starts at 10 pm.
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UFC 307 Longshot Prop Bet (2024)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jose Aldo (+120) vs. Mario Bautista (-142)
I wrote a more in-depth preview of this fight, which you can find here. Bautista has shown his toughness throughout his time in the UFC, but he can be knocked out. Trevin Jones won with an uppercut, which dropped Bautista and finally finished him. Jose Aldo is a phenomenal striker and can find a knockout strike in this fight.
The reason this is such a long shot is that Aldo has not won by knockout since 2019. Seven of his last eight fights have gone to decision, so this one likely will too, but it’s called a longshot for a reason and this is one that I like. Aldo has 16 wins via KO in his career and four in the UFC. The number is great for this method of victory prop despite his long run of decisions.
Bet: Jose Aldo To Win By Knockout (+650)
Ryan Spann (-250) vs. Ovince St. Preux (+205)
This light heavyweight matchup is on the early prelims, but it features two veterans who have been with the UFC a long time. Ovince St. Preux joined the UFC in 2013 when they acquired Strikeforce. He is 41 but has been active in the UFC for years. Not many fights have gone his way recently, but he is 3-4 since 2020. His last fight was a win over Kennedy Nzechukwu by split decision in March.
Ryan Spann fought on the Contender Series twice before debuting in 2018. He is 7-5 in the UFC overall, but he is currently on a three-fight losing streak. The loss that started the streak was a submission to Nikita Krylov in 2023. He got Spann in a triangle from his back in a chaotic matchup; Spann was worn out by the end of the first round, which has been a problem for Spann's career. His cardio has been questionable, but his power has never been questioned. That is why he is -115 to win by knockout.
St. Preux must be extremely cautious early in this fight because Spann could turn his lights off with one punch. OSP has slowed down at this point in his career and will not have the speed advantage on his feet. This should even out a bit as Spann gets tired, but St. Preux must be defensive early. He has nine submission victories in his career, including six in the UFC. He is quick in transitions and will attempt a lot of different chokes. Spann is also a great grappler, but he will be willing to exchange on the mat with OSP and this is a live method of victory if he can avoid the early knockout.
Bet: Ovince St. Preux To Win By Submission (+800)