UFC 310 Odds & Picks: Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie (2024)
Saturday's UFC 310 card is absolutely stacked, and this main-card tilt between Bryce Mitchell (#13) and Kron Gracie should be a banger. Below I'll recap how each fighter got here, touch on their key statistics, and wrap up with the odds and my betting analysis for this Featherweight showdown.
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UFC 310: Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Bryce Mitchell (16-3-0)
It seemed that the world was at Bryce Mitchell's fingertips just a couple of years ago, until he ran into current Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria. Topuria handled Mitchell quite easily back in December 2022, defeating him via second-round submission (Arm Triangle). Mitchell bounced back by beating Dan Ige (U-DEC) in September 2023, but took a loss three months later at the hands of Josh Emmett (KO/TKO - Punch). This will be the American's first fight since last December.
The southpaw has a wrestling background, and he utilizes it quite a bit in the octagon. Mitchell is landing 3.45 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 41% success rate. He's fending off 33% of opposing attempts. As for his striking numbers, "Thug Nasty" is landing 2.30 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 1.63 strikes per minute. Mitchell is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he trains out of Searcy, Arkansas.
Betting Profile: Kron Gracie (5-2-0)
Like Mitchell, Kron Gracie is in need of a victory in the UFC octagon. The 36-year-old has lost two consecutive fights, with both defeats coming via unanimous-decision. First, it was getting picked apart by Cub Swanson in October 2019, where he was out-struck 135-86. Following nearly a four-year layoff, Gracie once again made the walk, but lost to Charles Jourdain in May 2023. He was out-struck 80-32 in that bout.
Those two bouts have inflated Gracie's strike defense numbers, where he's absorbing an insane 6.82 significant strikes per minute. He's landing only 3.74 significant strikes per minute. Gracie hasn't found much luck in his wrestling approach, as he's averaging 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 25% clip. He has a 0% takedown defense rate in the UFC. Gracie is a black belt in both BJJ and Judo.
Bottom Line
I completely agree with the sports betting market in this Featherweight showdown. Bryce Mitchell is a massive -850 moneyline favorite, and I think that's warranted for this tilt. Kron Gracie comes back at +575 to get his hand raised and snap his two-fight slide.
As I was alluding to, I think Mitchell takes care of business in this one. With that being said, there really isn't a great way to bet this fight since he's such a massive favorite. Even if we take him to win by decision, we still have to lay a -200 price. However, I think we just have to bite the bullet and lay the vigorish with Mitchell to win by decision.
As long as Mitchell keeps this fight upright, he should cruise to a win. Gracie has been absolutely mangled in his last two fights, getting out-struck 215-118. He's absorbing 6.82 significant strikes per minute. Gracie is a dangerous fighter on the ground, but I just don't expect him to take Mitchell to the canvas. "Thug Nasty" hasn't been taken down since 2019, which is a streak that stretches eight fights. Let's ride with Mitchell to win by points at -200.
Bet: Bryce Mitchell To Win By Decision (-200)