UFC 310 Odds & Picks: Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov (2024)
Saturday's UFC 310 card from Las Vegas, NV is loaded with ranked fights, including this Heavyweight bout between Ciryl Gane (No. 2) and Alexander Volkov (No. 3).
Let's check out each fighter's recent form, touch on their key metrics and finish with the odds and betting analysis for this tilt.
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UFC 310: Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Ciryl Gane (12-2-0)
It has been 15 months since Ciryl Gane last made the UFC walk, but it was a victorious effort for the Frenchman. He smashed Serghei Spivac, out-striking him 109-11, and eventually knocking him out (punches) in the second round.
Gane has alternated wins and losses over his last five fights, with the defeats coming at the hands of Francis Ngannou (unanimous decision) and Jon Jones (submission via guillotine choke), more recently. Sandwiched in between the losses is a knockout win punches) against Tai Tuivasa.
Statistically, Gane is a high-volume striker, landing 5.49 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing only 2.19 strikes per minute, which speaks to his superb athletic ability. "Bon Gamin" isn't too active in terms of wrestling, where he's landing only 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Gane is successful on 21% of his takedown attempts while fending off 50% of opposing attempts. Gane is a Muay Thai fighter, training out of MMA Factory in Paris, France.
Betting Profile: Alexander Volkov (38-10-0)
There's just no getting rid of Russia's Alexander Volkov. This guy is one of the most active heavyweights in the promotion, and he's set to compete in his 49th professional fight on Saturday night. He's been in a bit of a gatekeeping role recently, but now he's climbing the rankings thanks to a four-fight heater.
Volkov's latest victims:
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik (KO/TKO - punches)
- Alexander Romanov (KO/TKO - punches)
- Tai Tuivasa (submission via Ezekiel choke)
- Sergei Pavlovich (unanimous decision)
Like Gane, "Drago" is a high-volume striker, landing 5.13 significant strikes per minute at a 57% clip. He's taking three strikes per minute. Volkov lands only 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he's successful on 63% of his attempts. The 36-year-old is defending 73% of opposing takedown attempts. The Russian-born brawler is a third-dan black belt in Tsu Shin Gen, a brown belt in Kyokushin karate and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Bottom Line
This should be a thrilling Heavyweight fight in the middle of Saturday's main card. The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook view Ciryl Gane as a sizable -375 Moneyline favorite, while Alexander Volkov comes back at +295 to get his hand raised.
I'm not sure Gane should be such a massive favorite in this fight. There's a decent chance he wins, but I don't think he warrants nearly a 1-to-4 vig on the Moneyline. With that said, I'm going to sprinkle on Volkov to win this fight.
Volkov's riding a four-fight winning streak, and I think he's well aware this could be his last chance to climb the rankings and earn a shot at the title. He's looked sharp in his last four fights, out-striking his opponents 209-80 over the four-fight sample size.
Both guys are lengthy and athletic, and I view this fight as being a lot tighter than the market suggests. Not to mention that if Volkov wants to mix in a bit of wrestling, it could throw a wrench in things. Gane's only defeats have been in fights where he's been taken down. All things considered, I think it's worth a flier on Volkov at this inflated price of +295.
Bet: Alexander Volkov Moneyline (+295)