UFC 310 Odds & Picks: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura (2024)
The UFC returns to the fight capital of the world on Saturday night, as the promotion rolls out a UFC 310 that's littered with epic fights.
All roads lead to a championship bout in the Flyweight Division, as Alexandre Pantoja (champion) looks to defend his title against Kai Asakura, who's making his UFC debut.
Below I'll dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on their key statistics and wrap up with my betting analysis for the fight.
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UFC 310: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0)
Brazil's Alexandre Pantoja is set to make his third defense of the title on Saturday night. The 34-year-old captured the belt back in July 2023, beating Brandon Moreno in a five-round split-decision contest.
Moreno earned an instant rematch in December 2023, but Pantoja took care of him again, this time by unanimous decision. Pantoja went the distance in his third title fight in the Flyweight division, handling Steve Erceg (unanimous decision) in May of this year. Pantoja's currently riding a six-fight win streak and has logged two submissions and four decisions over the six-fight sample size.
Statistically, "The Cannibal" is landing 4.41 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.97 strikes per minute. He's active in the wrestling department, where he averages 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 47% success rate. Pantoja's fending off 68% of opposing attempts, He's been taken down only three times in his last three outings. In terms of accolades, Pantoja is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Betting Profile: Kai Asakura (21-4-0)
Japan's Kai Asakura is set to make the UFC walk for the first time on Saturday night, and he's getting an instant title fight. However, the 31-year-old is no stranger to the bright lights, as he was a two-time Bantamweight champion in his previous promotion, Rizin Fighting Federation. Asakura went out on top, beating Juan Archuleta via second-round TKO (knee) for the Rizin Bantamweight title in December 2023.
Asakura has won two straight fights overall. He's 21-4-0 in his professional career. As for the breakdown of his wins, he's logged 13 knockouts, three submissions and five decisions. The losses have come from three knockouts and one decision defeat. Asakura stands 5-foot-8 and boasts a 69-inch reach.
Bottom Line
This should be an interesting main event in Sin City on Saturday, as Alexandre Pantoja looks to make his third defense of the Flyweight title. The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook view the Brazilian as a sizable -250 Moneyline favorite to retain the belt. The debuting challenger comes back at +205 to get his hand raised.
I'm confident Pantoja will take care of business and defend his title. I simply think the Brazilian is the more well-rounded brawler, as well as the more battle-tested fighter. No offense to the Japanese circuit of the Rizin promotion, but they don't feature fighters of Brandon Moreno or Deiveson Figueiredo's caliber.
I do think we'll get our money's worth in this one, or at least 7.5 minutes worth of action. Asakura has gone through the 7.5-minute mark in each of his last five fights, with three of those going the distance. He'll likely be hunting knockouts in there, but I believe Pantoja has the athletic ability and strike defense to avoid any critical blows.
Once this fight drags into the championship rounds, I think that's when we see Pantoja exert his dominance. Give me Pantoja and the over on 1.5 rounds.
Bet: Alexandre Pantoja to Win and Over 1.5 Rounds Parlay (-135)