UFC 310 Odds & Picks: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry (2024)
Kai Asakura is making his UFC debut this weekend but will fight for the title against the champion, Alexandre Pantoja. Dana White and the matchmakers know what they are doing by bringing in Asakura to fight for the belt. This fight card is loaded with interesting matchups, even on the prelims. It should be an interesting card. The action will begin at 6 p.m. EST, with the main card on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. EST.
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UFC 310: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-375)
Shavkhat Rakhomonov is terrorizing the welterweight division. He is 18-0 as a professional and 6-0 since entering the UFC. His last opponent was Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, who he choked in the second round. Before that, he choked Geoff Neal and Neil Magny.
He lands 4.12 significant strikes and absorbs 2.41 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 61% accuracy while defending 51% of significant strikes. Rakhmonov averages 1.49 takedowns landed per 15 minutes but only lands them with 29% accuracy. He has never been taken down in the UFC with a 100% takedown defense.
Ian Machado Garry (+295)
Ian "The Future" Machado Garry is 15-0 as a professional and 8-0 in the UFC. His most recent victory was against Michael "Venom" Page by unanimous decision in June. He beat Geoff Neal and Neil Magny via decision before that.
He lands 5.50 significant strikes and absorbs 3.17 significant strikes per minute. Garry lands with 55% accuracy and defends 52% of significant strikes. He averages 0.77 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 55% accuracy while defending 69% of takedowns.
Prediction
This is a special matchup for the UFC. Two of their prospects have made it through the ranks without taking a loss and will meet to decide which man will take his first loss. It is not often that prospects make it through six fights in the UFC without taking a loss, and it is amazing that the two will meet in the same division.
Garry is an accurate striker with great kicks and quick hands. He has solid offensive wrestling, but his defensive wrestling has not been tested to the extent it will on Saturday night. Rakhmonov implements a pressure wrestling style, which explains his 29% accuracy on takedowns. He does not stop shooting them, even if they fail repeatedly. Rakhmonov only needs one to finish the fight. This is a five-round fight, which plays into Rakhmonov's game plan. Garry must defend takedowns, which will alter his striking.
Rakhmonov will be at a disadvantage at a distance with Garry, but his wrestling ability should negate some of Garry's kicks. He must stay balanced to defend takedowns and may not throw as many kicks to the head or body. Leg kicks could play a huge factor in this fight if Garry decides to utilize them. The problem is that Rakhmonov does not want to stay at striking distance. He will want to be too far away to hit or inside boxing range, either in the clinch or searching for a takedown. Once he gets this fight to the ground, he will exploit the holes in Garry's defensive grappling. Rakhmonov is a fight finisher, and I see him finding a choke like he usually does.
Bet: Shavkhat Rakhmonov To Win by Submission (+180)