UFC 311 Odds & Picks: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan (2025)
The UFC heads to Inglewood, CA this weekend for the first numbered event of the year, as (C) Islam Makhachev squares off against (#1) Arman Tsarukyan for the Lightweight title at UFC 311. Below I'll dive into each fighter's path to this rematch, touch on their key metrics, and wrap up with my betting analysis for the main event.
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UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Islam Makhachev (26-1-0)
Russia's Islam Makhachev is proving to be a serious problem in a deep Lightweight division, as he's now a perfect 4-0 in title fights at 155 Lbs. The now-33-year-old first captured the strap from Charles Oliveira (SUB - Arm Triangle) back in 2022, and he's since defended his championship three times against Alexander Volkanovski twice (U - DEC), KO/TKO - Kick) and Dustin Poirier (SUB - D'Arce Choke). These four wins are part of a larger 14-fight winning streak that dates back nearly 10 years. Makhachev's breakdown of professional wins has seen him rack up 12 submissions, nine decisions, and five knockouts.
Let's start with his grappling, where Makhachev is an International Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He's landing 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 53% success rate, while fending off 90% of opposing takedown attempts. The champ isn't overly-active in the striking department, where he's averaging 2.65 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing a measly 1.54 significant strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0)
Armenia's Arman Tsarukyan has suffered only two defeats in his UFC career, with the first coming at the hands of Islam Makhachev (U-DEC) back in his debut in April 2019. The other was in 2022 against Mateusz Gamrot (U-DEC), and the challenger has since rebounded with a four-fight winning streak. The most recent outing came in April 2024, where Tsarukyan bested Charles Oliveira (S-DEC). Tsarukyan out-stuck his opponent 49-19 while landing two takedowns and 8:41 worth of control time, but the Do Bronx did attempt four submissions in the contest.
Speaking of submissions, Tsarukyan has yet to be submitted in his 25-fight professional career (22-3-0). His three losses are by two decisions and a knockout, while the wins have come by nine knockouts, eight decisions, and five submissions. The 28-year-old is landing 3.79 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.84 strikes. Tsarukyan is averaging 3.25 successful takedowns per minute at a 37% clip while defending 75% of opposing attempts.
Bottom Line
This should be a very intriguing main event on Saturday night, but the sports betting market still views the champion, Islam Makhachev, as a sizable -360 moneyline favorite. The challenging Arman Tsarukyan comes back at +285 to win this rematch and secure the Lightweight championship.
Being that this is a 25-minute fight, Makhachev should have plenty of time to find a finish. So, at +215 odds, it's worth a flier to play the champ to win inside the distance. He's been a finishing machine as of late, racking up seven of them (5 SUB, 2 KO) in his last eight outings. The lone exception was a 25-minute war with Alexander Volkanovski (U - DEC) in their first tilt.
I don't expect Makhachev to completely ragdoll Tsarukyan (75% takedown defense rate), but he should be able to grind away at the Armenian and amass ground control time as the fight moves along. From there, we're all aware that the Russian-born brawler is one of the most crafty finishers in the game. Whether it be with the ground-and-pound or sticking the challenger with a submission, I believe Makhachev will find a way to get the finish.
Bet: Islam Makhachev To Win by Any Knockout, Submission, or DQ (+215)