UFC 311 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
The first pay-per-view (PPV) of 2025 is here and the card is stacked. There are two title fights scheduled for the Lightweight and Bantamweight titles. Merab Dvalishvili will put his belt on the line against Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event. Islam Makhachev will battle Arman Tsarukyan for a second time, but this time in the main event for the title.
The event takes place in the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, with the main card starting at 10:00 p.m. EST.
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UFC 311 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jailton Almeida (-470) vs. Serghei Spivac (+360)
Jailton Almeida got back on track in his last fight against Alexander Romanov with a quick first-round submission. He was knocked out in March of last year by Curtis Blaydes, who was able to match his wrestling ability and wore Almeida out by defending his takedowns.
Almeida should have the wrestling advantage over Serghei Spivac. He is more athletic and faster with much better jiu-jitsu skills. Spivac averages 4.63 takedowns landed per 15 minutes but is not used to being on his back. Almeida will put him in uncomfortable positions and look for a submission, probably by taking his back and finding a choke.
Almeida could win this fight on the feet, but his ground game is too good. The athleticism and speed will be too much for Spivac in both areas. The one area of concern for Almeida is his chin, which could be tested by Spivac. The best way to approach this fight for Almeida is to keep Spivac guessing by taking him down so he does not load up on his power punches.
Bet: Jailton Almeida to Win by Submission (+110)
Payton Talbott (-1050) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+675)
This matchup is between two fighters heading in different directions in their careers. Raoni Barcelos has lost four of his last six fights dating back to 2021. He did win his last fight via submission over Cristian Quinonez, though, in the third round. Payton Talbott is 9-0 as a professional and 3-0 in the UFC. Talbott is one of the most entertaining prospects in the UFC and has all the confidence in the world.
Barcelos is a crafty veteran who will bring the fight to Talbott, but he is too far past his prime at 37. Umar Nurmagomedov knocked out Barcelos in the first round in 2023. Talbott has the skills and instincts to end this fight quickly, but he cannot rush inside the octagon. Barcelos is the toughest opponent of Talbott's young career and should be respected as such.
The fight ending sequence will come for Talbott, but setting it up is key. Talbott is always looking to entertain the fans, which makes this a confident play. The odds are leaning one way for a reason, and the oddsmakers have this right. Talbott will get tougher fights soon, but he must first handle the veteran Barcelos.
Bet: Payton Talbott to Win by Knockout (-185)