UFC 311 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
This weekend's UFC 311 card in Inglewood, CA is stacked with great bouts, providing us with a plethora of ways to get some skin in the game. I'm heading to the prop bet market in this article, where I've narrowed in on my three favorite props for UFC 311.
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UFC 311 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Islam Makhachev (-325) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (+260)
All roads lead to a Lightweight title fight, as champion Islam Makhachev looks to make his fourth defense of the championship at 155 pounds. His next challenger is No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan, who comes in riding a four-fight winning streak.
This will be a rematch between these two lightweights, but you have to go back to April 2019 to find the initial meeting. The champ won that bout in a three-round unanimous decision, out-striking his opponent 14 to 13. However, the Russian-born brawler racked up four takedowns in the fight. I'm going to back Makhachev, who's an International Master of Sport in Combat Sambo, to secure four or more takedowns once again.
Tsarukyan is an excellent grappler, but we've seen him run into some issues with takedown defense when stepping up against truly elite wrestlers. The other example is his only other loss in the UFC, where the Armenian was taken down six times in a 25-minute battle with Mateusz Gamrot. Overall, Tsarukyan's takedown defense rate is a solid 75%, but as I was alluding to, his defense can falter when facing top-tier wrestlers. With 25 minutes to work with, Makhachev should have plenty of time to secure four or more takedowns.
Bet: Islam Makhachev Over 3.5 Takedowns Landed (-135)
Merab Dvalishvili (+225) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-178)
There's a second championship strap on the line Saturday night, and this title bout comes in the Bantamweight division. Champion Merab Dvalishvili is a sizable +225 Moneyline underdog to retain his belt, while the rising Umar Nurmagomedov (No. 2 ranked contender) comes back at -278 to capture the title.
Everything Dvalishvili does is at a high tempo and high volume. He's landing 4.35 significant strikes per minute, while also averaging 6.09 takedowns per 15 minutes. This fight is scheduled for 25 minutes. Being that these two brawlers have only ever been finished once in 40 combined fights, there's a decent chance we make it the distance. My co-worker, Trent Conner, agrees, and so do the sportsbooks, who have issued a price of -280 for the fight to go the distance.
Being that this is the case, I'm going to play Dvalishvili to land 81+ significant strikes. He's done so in two of his last three fights (82, 74, 147). Nurmagomedov does well to not get hit (63% strike defense rate), however, this will easily be the Russian's biggest step up in competition. Just by the sheer volume of strikes the Georgian throws, I think he'll get there across 25 minutes of action.
Bet: Merab Dvalishvili Over 80.5 Strikes Landed (-115)
Jiri Prochazka (+114) vs. Jamahal Hill (-135)
Just before the title fights on Saturday, we have a banger of a Light Heavyweight tilt between (No. 2) Jiri Prochazka and (No. 3) Jamahal Hill. Both fighters are coming off of title-fight losses against Alex Pereira. It's the third-ranked Hill (-135) who's favored here.
I think someone's going to sleep in this one. Both of these 205-pounders pack a massive punch. Prochazka's 30-5-1 in his career (26 knockouts). Hill is 12-2-0 (one no contest, seven knockouts). Additionally, all seven of their combined defeats have been by finish (six knockouts, one submission).
Since we're likely not making it very deep into this fight, I'll look to play the under on Prochazka's significant strike total. My thought process is pretty straightforward - he's either going to land a knockout or get punched out, meaning he won't have much time to rack up 45+ significant strikes. The Czech-born brawler has stayed under this total in two out of his last three fights (7, 69, 30). Additionally, Hill's strike defense rate is just 46%, meaning 54% of his opponent's strikes are landing. That's not a great formula when standing across from the powerful Jiri Prochazka.
Bet: Jiri Prochazka Under 44.5 Significant Strikes (-115)