The UFC continues its adventure abroad to start 2025, and the next stop is New South Wales, Australia, where the 312th numbered event is scheduled. All roads lead to a Middleweight championship rematch, where (C) Dricus Du Plessis looks to defend his belt against (#1) Sean Strickland. Below I'll dive into each fighter's path to this point, touch on their key metrics, and wrap up with the odds and my best bet for the bout.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
UFC 312: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Dricus Du Plessis (22-2-0)
South Africa's Dricus Du Plessis will make the UFC walk for the ninth time on Saturday night, and he's a perfect 8-0 in his previous bouts in the promotion. The 31-year-old has navigated some of the toughest names in the Middleweight division on his climb to the number one spot at 185 Lbs., taking care of Darren Till (SUB - Neck Crank), Derek Brunson (KO/TKO - Punches), Robert Whittaker (KO/TKO - Punches), Sean Strickland (S-DEC) and Israel Adesanya (SUB - Rear Naked Choke), most recently. The two recent fights were championship fights, meaning this will be Du Plessis' second defense of the Middleweight strap on Saturday.
It's worth noting straight away that Du Plessis amassed six takedowns in his previous fight against Sean Strickland. Stillknocks' wrestling has been a cornerstone to his MMA success, and he's averaging 3.04 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% success rate. He's fending off only 50% of opposing attempts. As for his striking numbers, Du Plessis is landing 6.18 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.86 strikes per minute. In terms of accolades, he's a 2nd-degree black belt in kickboxing.
Betting Profile: Sean Strickland (29-6-0)
Sean Strickland has a few more blemishes on his resume compared to Du Plessis, but regardless, the American is as battle-tested as they come. Following the split-decision loss to the South African back in January 2024, Strickland bounced back with a split-decision victory of his own, taking down Paulo Costa. It was a high-volume war, where Strickland out-struck his opponent 182-158. He's now 4-1 in his last five fights, where he has a notable championship victory over Israel Adesanya (U-DEC).
The former champion is constantly moving forward and pushing the pace, which is evident by the fact that he's averaging 6.01 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 4.48 significant strikes per minute, and his opponents are landing those strikes at just a 39% clip. In terms of grappling, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt is fending off 77% of opposing takedown attempts, while landing 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 64% success rate. As for the breakdown of Strickland's victories, he has 14 decision wins, 11 knockouts, and four submissions.
Bottom Line
This main event should be an absolute banger between two savages at 185 Lbs. However, the sports betting market gives a sizable edge to Dricus Du Plessis to retain the belt, pricing him at -205 to get his hand raised. The former champion, Sean Strickland, comes back at +170 to win the rematch in New South Wales, Australia.
As tempting as the +170 payout that comes with Strickland is, I'm just not sure that I can get there to pull the trigger on the former champ. There's really just one issue that has me wary of the American in this spot, and that's his takedown defense. He was taken down six times in the first meeting, albeit for only 2:08 worth of ground control time. Still, if Stillknocks can get him to the canvas, it's a huge advantage for him.
With all of that being said, I'm going to ride with Du Plessis to get the win, and I think it's worth playing him at +215 to win by finish (i.e. knockout, submission, or DQ). This guy simply doesn't lose. He's 22-2 in his MMA career, and prior to that he racked up a perfect 33-0 record in amateur kickboxing with 30 knockouts. Du Plessis has 20 finishes in his MMA career, and those have come via nine knockouts and 11 submissions. It's almost like we haven't even seen what he's capable of on the canvas in the UFC, as he only has one submission (vs. Darren Till) during his 8-0 run in the promotion.
With this fight being scheduled for 25 minutes, the champion will have plenty of time to find a finish. This +215 payout is just too good to pass up on considering 91% of Du Plessis' MMA wins are by finish.
Bet: Dricus Du Plessis To Win By Finish (+215)
