The UFC is traveling to Australia this week for two title fights, and one is a rematch. The card will feature a lot of Australian and Asian prospects due to the proximity, but not the main event.
South African Dricus Du Plessis will defend his middleweight title against Sean Strickland, who he took the belt from in 2024. Zhang Weili will also defend her belt against the undefeated Tatiana Suarez.
The fights should be entertaining and the crowd will be electric in Sydney. The early prelims begin at 6:00 p.m. EST and the main card will start at 10:00 p.m. on pay-per-view (PPV).
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UFC 312: Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jimmy Crute (+136)
Jimmy Crute has lost three of his last four fights with a draw against Alonzo Menifield two fights ago. They ran that fight back, and Crute lost by submission in July 2023. He then stepped away from fighting but returned for another fight. He is 12-4-1 as a professional and 4-4-1 in the UFC.
Crute averages 3.68 significant strikes landed and 3.04 significant strikes absorbed per minute. His accuracy is 54% and he only defends 44% of significant strikes coming his way. He averages 4.84 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 57% accuracy. Crute has defended 60% of takedowns.
Rodolfo Bellato (-162)
Rodolfo Bellato is 12-2 as a professional and won his UFC debut against Ihor Potieria by knockout. It took him two attempts to secure a contract on Dana White's Contender Series after losing to Vitor Petrino in his first fight. He beat Murtaza Talha in his second attempt and was rewarded a chance to fight in the UFC.
Bellato has few stats due to his lack of experience in the promotion but averages 6.47 significant strikes landed and 5.90 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He lands with 61% accuracy and defends 44% of significant strikes. Bellato averages 1.09 takedowns per 15 minutes and has defended every takedown.
Prediction
Jimmy Crute retired from fighting in 2023 but is returning to the octagon. That is concerning because it seems like Crute does not want to be here. Bellato is hungry and has dedicated his life to becoming an elite fighter.
Bellato showed that in his last fight against Potieria, who dropped him in the second round. Bellato recovered and got a finish from a mount later in the round. He has heart and wants it badly. It is hard to say the same thing about Crute. He must prove he wants it badly before I back him in the UFC.
Bellato is a brawler, which is not always the best style for light heavyweights. It should end inside the distance, as the odds suggest, with Bellato likely getting the knockout. His wrestling will be tested by Crute, but I expect him to defend well enough to land big shots throughout the fight.
Crute will be relentless with wrestling, but that could be his downfall if he gets tired while standing with the powerful Bellato. I predict Bellato to win by knockout, but I am taking the Moneyline in case Crute quits and gives Bellato the submission like he did last time.
Bet: Rodolfo Bellato (-162)
