The UFC is traveling to Australia this week for two title fights, and one is a rematch. The card will feature a lot of Australian and Asian prospects due to the proximity, but not the main event. South African Dricus Du Plessis will defend his middleweight title against Sean Strickland, who he took the belt against in 2024. Zhang Weili will also defend her belt against the undefeated Tatiana Suarez. The fights should be entertaining, and the crowd will be electric in Sydney! The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. EST, and the main card will start at 10 p.m. on pay-per-view.
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UFC 312: Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Zhang Weili (+100)
Zhang Weili has held the belt twice in her career and is attempting to defend it for a third time. She beat Carla Esparza in 2022 to gain the belt for the second time and defended it against Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan. She is 25-3 as a professional and her only losses in the UFC came against Rose Namajunas in 2021.
Zhang averages 5.66 significant strikes landed and 3.15 significant strikes absorbed per minute. She lands with 53% accuracy and defends 53% of significant strikes. She averages 2.51 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 46% accuracy. Zhang has defended 50% of takedowns.
Tatiana Suarez (–120)
Tatiana Suarez is undefeated as a professional and 6-0 in the UFC after winning The Ultimate Fighter in 2016. She submitted Jessica Andrade in August and Montana De La Rosa in February. She took a long layoff between June 2019 and 2023 but has returned to form.
Suarez lands 4.27 significant strikes and absorbs 1.38 significant strikes per minute. She lands with 63% accuracy and defends 51% of significant strikes. She averages 6.20 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and shoots with 61% accuracy. Suarez has defended 100% of takedowns in the UFC.
Prediction
Tatiana Suarez is a top-tier wrestler and has excellent submissions once on the mat. Zhang Weili has improved her wrestling tremendously in recent fights but is not as good as Suarez. While Zhang has scrambled well recently, she has been taken down multiple times. Suarez will get her on the mat and will likely be able to keep her there. She is a chain wrestler, which will counter Zhang's scrambling ability because she will not stop once getting the first takedown.
Zhang has a clear advantage on the feet, but it will not come into play if she is on the mat. The other advantage Zhang has is her cardio. She has great conditioning and is proven in five-round fights. She averages 13 and a half minutes per fight in the UFC and has been fighting for the title for years, while Suarez has never been past the third round in the UFC. Suarez via submission offers some value at +240, but I am playing it safe with the money line.
