The UFC is back in the fight capital of the world this weekend, as the promotion rolls out a loaded UFC 313 card. All roads lead to a championship bout in the Light Heavyweight division between champion Alex Pereira and No. 1 challenger Magomed Ankalaev.
Let's check out how each fighter got here, touch on their key metrics and wrap up with my best way to bet on this title fight at 205 pounds.
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UFC 313: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (12-2-0)
Brazil's Alex Pereira has been a force since joining the UFC, going 9-1-0 while fighting in six title fights. The lone loss came in a Middleweight championship rematch against Israel Adesanya (KO/TKO - Punch), but the current Light Heavyweight champ has bounced back with five consecutive wins. He's dominating everyone that sits atop this 205-pound weight class, and his three recent wins were against Jamahal Hill (KO/TKO - Punch), Jiri Prochazka (KO/TKO - Kick and Khalil Rountree Jr. (KO/TKO - Punch).
Statistically, Pereira is averaging 5.46 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 3.44 strikes per minute. He's inactive when it comes to wrestling, landing only 0.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. The man known as "Poatan" is a black belt in both kickboxing and Brazilian jiu-jitsu and boasts a respectable 70% takedown defense rate.
Betting Profile: Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 No Contest)
Magomed Ankalaev will make the championship walk for the second time in his UFC career. He logged a split-decision draw against Jan Blachowicz in that December 2022 bout. Since the draw, the Russian-born brawler had a no-contest fight with Johnny Walker (illegal kick), a win over Walker (KO/TKO - Punch) in the rematch and a unanimous decision victory over Aleksandar Rakic last time out. Ankalaev out-struck Rakic 55-53 in the recent win in October 2024.
Stylistically, Ankalaev is an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA and a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He's landing 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 31% clip while fending off 86% of opposing attempts. As for his striking, the challenger averages 3.64 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.37 strikes per minute.
Bottom Line
This main event on Saturday night should be electric. The sports betting market agrees, essentially pricing this championship bout as a pick’em. Alex Pereira sits at -115 to retain the Light Heavyweight strap, while Magomed Ankalaev comes back at -105 to win the bout.
Strictly from a value perspective, it feels like a no-brainer to ride with the champ in this spot. Pereira has been demolishing everyone who steps into the octagon to challenge him. Now you're offering pick’em pricing on a fighter no one, aside from Israel Adesanya in a rematch, has figured out yet? Sign me up.
While Ankalaev is deserving of this title shot, I still have to point out he's the lesser battle-tested of the two fighters. I'm sorry, but Johnny Walker and Aleksandar Rakic, the latter of which is 0-2 vs. Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka, don’t move the meter - at least not when the next step up is Alex Pereira.
Pereira continues to take care of business against the promotion's top brawlers, as he's 9-1-0 with seven knockouts in the UFC. This may be one of those fights where we look back and wonder why this fight was a pick’em. I'm not passing up on a –115 price with the champ.
Bet: Alex Pereira Moneyline (-115)
