This weekend's UFC 313 card in Sin City is littered with intriguing fights, including this Lightweight showdown between (No. 13-ranked) Jalin Turner and (unranked) Ignacio Bahamondes. Below I'll touch on each fighter's recent form, dive into their metrics and styles and finish with my betting analysis for this clash at 155 pounds.
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UFC 313: Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Jalin Turner (14-8-0)
Jalin Turner has tried climbing the rankings a few times in recent history, but it hasn't gone well, as he's 1-3 in his last four bouts. A win over King Green (KO/TKO - Punches) is surrounded by losses to Mateusz Gamrot (S-DEC), Dan Hooker (S-DEC) and Renato Moicano (KO/TKO - Punches). The 29-year-old now finds himself in a gatekeeper role, where he's competing to keep his ranking in this loaded Lightweight division. Overall, Turner is 14-8-0 professionally. All 14 of his wins have come by finish (10 knockouts, four submissions).
Statistically, the American is a high-volume striker, landing 5.60 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 4.57 strikes per minute and his opponents are landing at an elevated 59% success rate. Turner, who's a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, is averaging 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 55% clip. He's fending off 74% of opposing takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Ignacio Bahamondes (16-5-0)
Chile's Ignacio Bahamondes is on an impressive 5-1 run in the UFC, which includes his current two-fight winning streak against Christos Giagos (KO/TKO - Kick) and Manuel Torres (KO/TKO - Punch). Both first-round knockouts earned Performance of the Night awards. The upward-trending 27-year-old comes into the weekend with a record of 16-5-0, where he's amassed 11 knockouts and one submission victory.
Bahamondes aka "La Jaula" doesn’t possess much of a ground game, as he's averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, his takedown defense has been strong, as he's denying 85% of opposing attempts. As you can likely deduce from his 10 knockouts, Bahamondes makes his money standing up, where he's landing 7.17 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 4.41 significant strikes per minute.
Bottom Line
This is one of the tighter-lined fights on Saturday's UFC 313 main card, as unranked Ignacio Bahamondes enters as a slim -130 Moneyline favorite. No. 13-ranked Jalin Turner is priced at +110 to win the bout, which would see him get back into the win column following a knockout loss to Renato Moicano last April.
Typically, I'd look to back the veteran who has fought up the rankings, especially at plus-money. However, I just can’t get over the fact Turner's opponents are landing their strikes at an insane 59% accuracy rate. For perspective, Bahamondes sits at 43%, while fighters who we consider nearly untouchable like Max Holloway and Islam Makhachev are at 41% and 39%, respectively.
This should be concerning for anyone looking to back Turner, as Bahamondes is averaging 7.17 significant strikes per minute. The Chilean has knockout power, but can also produce high-volume striking performances, which I believe gives him the edge considering this fight will likely be an upright kickboxing fight.
Finally, Turner, who's 6-foot-3, can sometimes have an edge in this weight class due to his height advantage and reach (77 inches). That won't be the case here as his opponent is equally as tall and boasts a 75-inch reach. In my opinion, Bahamondes is rightfully favored. I think he'll prevail in this Lightweight tilt and will lay the -130 juice.
Bet: Ignacio Bahamondes Moneyline (-130)
