Alex Pereira is back to defend his belt at UFC 313 in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. He has become one of the biggest superstars in the sport and remains as active as ever. He will fight Magomed Ankalaev in one of the toughest matchups of his career. Fan-favorite Justin Gaethje will also fight Rafael Fiziev in the co-main event. The event will begin at 6:30 p.m. EST, and the main card starts at 10 EST on pay-per-view.
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UFC 313: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Justin Gaethje (+140)
Justin Gaethje is coming off a loss to Max Holloway, which ended via a walk-off knockout for Max Holloway when the two decided to exchange at the end of the fight. That moved Gaethje's record to 25-5 as a professional and 8-5 in the UFC.
He averages 6.78 significant strikes landed and 7.46 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Gaethje lands with 59% accuracy and defends 52% of significant strikes from opponents. He only averages 0.11 takedowns landed per 15 minutes but defends the at a 75% rate.
Rafael Fiziev (–166)
Rafael Fiziev is on a two-fight losing streak, which leaves him at 12-3 professionally and 6-3 in the UFC. His last fight was a knockout loss to Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023. He has taken plenty of time off, which is good following a knockout.
Fiziev averages 4.90 significant strikes landed and 4.97 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He lands with 51% accuracy and defends 49% of significant strikes. He averages 0.29 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and defends 89% of takedowns.
Prediction
Dan Hooker had to pull out of his matchup against Gaethje due to a hand injury which required surgery. Rafael Fiziev is stepping in for a rematch with Gaethje. These two fought in March 2023, and Gaethje won a majority decision, winning on two scorecards while one judge deemed it a draw. Gaethje landed more significant strikes in the final round, while the first two rounds were only separated by four and five significant strikes in favor of Fiziev. Gaethje was doing more head hunting, landing 78% of strikes there, while Fiziev landed 39% to the head and 53% to Gaethje's body. It was a close fight, and I expect another close bout between two elite strikers.
Both men enter this fight off knockout losses, and durability could be an issue. They both took time off between fights to let their heads recover, but it is always a concern. Gaethje should have the advantage because he lands to the head and likely has more power. Fiziev is powerful but tends to pick at the body and does not move his head off the center line as much as he should. I expect both men to be well prepared to face each other again, as they are both constantly in the gym and are elite strikers. This fight will not touch the ground unless Gaethje implements his wrestling, which is better than Fiziev's. I predict a Gaethje knockout, but I would take him as an underdog to be safe.
Bet: Justin Gaethje (+140)
