Alex Pereira is back to defend his belt at UFC 313 in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. He has become one of the biggest superstars in the sport and remains as active as ever. He will fight Magomed Ankalaev in one of the toughest matchups of his career. Fan-favorite Justin Gaethje will also fight Rafael Fiziev in the co-main event. The event will begin at 6:30 p.m. EST, and the main card starts at 10 ET on pay-per-view.
In that main card is this Lightweight bout between King Green and Mauricio Ruffy. Here’s a full preview of each fighter, how I think the fight will play out and my best bet for the occasion.
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UFC 313: King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
King Green (+350)
Green is 32-16-1 (1 NC) professionally and has a ton of experience in the UFC. He has been fighting for the promotion since 2009. Green has a record of 17-13-1 (1 NC) since then and has had some success lately. He is 3-2 in his last five fights but suffered a submission loss to Paddy Pimblett in his last bout.
Green lands 6.43 significant strikes and absorbs 3.73 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 53% accuracy and defends 62% of significant strikes. He averages 1.23 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and defends at a 74% clip.
Mauricio Ruffy (-455)
Ruffy has burst onto the scene with two consecutive wins in the UFC. He got his contract with a knockout victory on Dana White's Contender Series and won his debut fight against Jamie Mullarkey via first-round knockout. His latest fight against James Llontop went the distance, but he won via unanimous decision despite having fewer significant strikes landed.
The 28-year-old lands 4.70 significant strikes and absorbs 4.76 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 59% accuracy and defends 60% of significant strikes. He has not landed a takedown in the UFC but has defended 100%.
Prediction
Ruffy is a tough matchup for Green. He is an accurate striker with a lot of power. He also has a four-inch reach advantage, which should play a factor in this fight. Green suffered a vicious knockout against Jalin Turner, who also had a massive reach advantage over him. Ruffy must stay on his feet against Green, but that should not be a problem. Green is not known for his wrestling, but he uses it effectively. However, I expect this fight to stay standing for as long as it lasts.
The Brazilian trains with the Fighting Nerds, which should give him an advantage tactically. They always put their fighters in the best position to win a fight, but it is up to the athlete to execute the game plan. The plan should be easy for Ruffy: Stay on your feet and look for the knockout blow.
Green does not have the best chin and always keeps his hands low. That does help him throw punches from awkward angles, which gives some fighters fits. I do not think that will affect Ruffy, who does a good job of staying out of range and choosing good times to enter the boxing range. His reach advantage should help him negate Green’s awkwardness.
Ruffy should win this fight by knockout and likely wins on the scorecards if it gets there. My official prediction is Ruffy via knockout.
Bet: Mauricio Ruffy To Win by Knockout (-125)
