UFC Fight Night Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie: Odds, Picks & Predictions
What an incredible last weekend for the UFC! Sean O’Malley put a stamp on what could possibly be a new era in the bantamweight division, Weili Zhang produced an absolute Masterclass, and Ian Garry called out Steven “Wonderboy†Thompson.
It will be hard to top that, but we have an action-packed main event in Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie and several other intriguing matchups on this underrated fight night card. Let’s dive in!
UFC Fight Night Holloway vs. Korean Zombie: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record
- ML: 31-21-1 (+11.60 units)
- Props: 10-20-1 (+.70 units)
- Parlays 2-17 (-2.01 units)
- Overall +10.29 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s look at this compelling matchup!
Giga Chikadze (-238) vs. Alex Caceres (+195)
Giga Chikadze
- Dist Acc Off: 40.5%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.31
- Dist Def: 67%
- KD%: 2.01% (5 KDs out of 248 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 2.4%
- Control % Def: 9.7%
Alex Caceres
- Dist Acc Off: 56.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.01
- Dist Def: 59%
- KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 189 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 18.2%
- Control % Def: 21.7%
At first glance, we have two somewhat similar fighters. Both fighters fight at an equal pace and have above-average distance defense. Surprisingly, Alex Caceres is considerably more accurate at a distance. On the other hand, Giga Chikadze carries significantly more power in his strikes. His 2.01% knockdown rate is not something to be trifled with.
Caceres does show that he has another path to victory in offensive control, but he will have to put himself in danger to make that a reality. Giga is the more polished fighter, and I believe he will bounce back from his war with Calvin Kattar from 18 months ago.
Bet: Giga Chikadze (-238)
Erin Blanchfield (-148) vs. Taila Santos (+124)
Erin Blanchfield
- Dist Acc Off: 44.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.05
- Dist Def: 63%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 175 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 55.3%
- Control % Def: 1.6%
Taila Santos
- Dist Acc Off: 32.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.43
- Dist Def: 63%
- KD%: 1.7% (3 KDs out of 169 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 46.7%
- Control % Def: 16.5%
This is one of my favorite fights of the entire card. Taila Santos arguably beat former flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko in her last fight out. Santos controlled Valentina for most of the fight, but I do not believe she can do the same against Erin Blanchfield. Blanchfield has an elite control % profile. Santos does have the power edge, but her 16.5% control defense is concerning. Blanchfield is on a path to a title shot. A dominating performance against Santos could solidify her shot.
Bet: Erin Blanchfield (-148)
Rinya Nakamura (-900) vs. Fernie Garcia (+600)
Rinya Nakamura
- Dist Acc Off: 36.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.55
- Dist Def: 63%
- KD%: 15.3% (4 KDs out of 27 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 38.1%
- Control % Def: .2%
Fernie Garcia
- Dist Acc Off: 38.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.01
- Dist Def: 58%
- KD%: 1.5% (1 KD out of 63 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 5.5%
- Control % Def: 31.5%
We have two fighters with extremely small sample sizes. Rinya Nakamura has fought a distance for a total of 3 minutes and 53 seconds, and his total fight time is 6 minutes and 18 seconds in 3 fights. His 15% knockdown rate is completely unsustainable, but it is eyebrow-raising. Fernie Garcia doesn’t really bring much to the table that would give Rinya trouble. We never lay -900 in a UFC fight, so we’ll go the prop route.
Bet: Rinya Nakamura by TKO/KO in Round 1 (+120)
Junior Tafa (-142) vs. Parker Porter (+120)
Parker Porter
- Dist Acc Off: 48.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 17.23
- Dist Def: 52%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 313 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 24.1%
- Control % Def: 10.3%
Junior Tafa has too small of a sample size and isn’t eligible for an advanced statistics profile. Tafa does have a record of 20-5 (16 KOs) in kickboxing. He is an elite striker. In Tafa’s first fight, he stunned Mohammed Usman numerous times but could not overcome Usman’s wrestling.
Parker Porter does have a respectable control % offense of 24.1%, but I wouldn’t put it on the same level as Usman. The most concerning thing is Potter’s distance defense. Porter’s high pace and below-average distance defense is a recipe for disaster against a refined striker like Tafa.
Bet: Junior Tafa (-142)
Ryan Spann (-125) vs. Anthony Smith (+105)
Normally, I would provide two advanced statistical profiles, but these two fighters have faced each other recently. Anthony Smith was victorious in their last fight via RNC in Round 1. He knocked Ryan Spann down twice and dominated. Since that fight, Smith was dominated by Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker. Spann is moving in a different direction; he has won two of three fights. Both wins were by finish over Dominick Reyes (KO/TKO) and Ion Cutelaba (submission). I will go with Spann based on his positive trajectory.
Bet: Spann (-125)
Max Holloway (-750) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+525)
Max Holloway
- Dist Acc Off: 54.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.42
- Dist Def: 55%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 899 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.5%
- Control % Def: 4.1%
Chan Sung Jung
- Dist Acc Off: 42.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.68
- Dist Def: 44%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 185 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 15.4%
- Control % Def: 8.6%
This matchup does not make sense to me. After watching Alexander Volkanovski dismantle The Korean Zombie, I wish the UFC would have given him a more favorable matchup. There are some glaring concerns in this matchup.
Max Holloway fights at twice the pace of Jung. Jung also has a horrendous distance defense of 44%. He will eat a lot of punches, and this has the potential to be a blood bath. Something that is shocking to me is we have a combined 1,084 distance strikes from both fighters and zero knockdowns. Again, I will not be laying -750 at any point in my life. We will go the prop route.
Bet: Holloway by KO/TKO (-120) + Holloway by KO/TKO in Round 3 (+700)
ML Parlay
Parlay odds: +207 | 2u
Lottery Parlay
- Max Holloway by KO/TKO (-120)
- Erin Blanchfield (-148)
- Junior Tafa (-142)
- Giga Chikadze (-238)
- Ryan Spann (-120)
- Rinya Nakamura by KO/TKO Round 1 (+120)
Parlay odds: +2844 | .5 units
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!