UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs. Tybura: Parlay Odds & Picks
The UFC is taking the show on the road to the O2 Arena in London. The card is loaded with English fighters looking to entertain their home crowd. Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura headline the card in a heavyweight bout that will be entertaining. The last time the promotion went to London, the fans were more than pumped and helped make the fight card that much more exciting. The prelims begin at noon EDT, and the main card starts at 3 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
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UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs. Tybura: Parlay Odds & Picks
2023 total: Down 9.74 units | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Leg 1: Yanal Ashmouz Money Line (+130)
Yanal Ashmouz is taking on Chris Duncan in the lightweight division. Duncan is 10-1 in his career, with his loss coming via knockout in Dana White's Contender Series in 2021. He won a contract on DWCS and beat Omar Morales in his debut following the defeat. He had to deal with adversity in each fight, as he took some shots that hurt him. It will be hard to receive heavy strikes from Ashmouz and stay upright.
Ashmouz debuted in March with a first-round knockout of Sam Patterson. He is 7-0, with six victories coming via finish. Both men are capable of wrestling and should be even in that category. When Duncan got hurt in his previous fights, he would shoot a takedown to avoid taking more damage. He will be hard-pressed to find the takedown against Ashmouz and could be in danger of getting knocked out.
Leg 2: Jai Herbert Money Line (+140)
The London crowd will cheer for countrymen Jai Herbert in his lightweight matchup against Fares Ziam. Both men are primarily strikers but have been working on their grappling. Herbert stuffed four Kyle Nelson takedown attempts en route to a victory in 2022 and had one takedown against Ludovit Klein his last outing. Ziam probably has a slight edge on the mat, but Herbert has the striking advantage. He lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.92 strikes per minute. Fares Ziam lands 2.52 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.70 strikes per minute. Both men usually deal with their opponent trying to take them down, but it may not be an issue on Saturday. If they can open up, then the pace could increase dramatically. Herbert is the side to have in a striking battle, and he should be able to keep it standing.
Leg 3: Tom Aspinall Money Line (-540)
Tom Aspinall is returning from a knee injury he suffered in his loss to Curtis Blaydes. He said he was dealing with an issue in his knee before the injury, which means he likely needed surgery regardless of the injury. Aspinall will have his health tested during the bout, hopefully early, to get any mental block out of the way. There should be some questions surrounding his injury, but he should be good to go, or he would not have accepted the fight.
He is facing Marcin Tybura, ranked tenth in the heavyweight division. Aspinall has an athletic advantage over Tybura, but Tybura has far more experience. Tybura has been fighting in the UFC since 2016 and has a record 0f 11-6 in the promotion. He lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.31 strikes per minute, while Aspinall lands and absorbs 7.41-2.87 significant strikes per minute. Aspinall is a phenomenal grappler and finisher. Tybura usually uses his endurance to outlast heavyweights as they wear out, but that will be hard against Aspinall. He can touch him on the feet and likely submit him on the mat despite Tybura never suffering a submission loss.
Total Parlay Odds: +568
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