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UFC Fight Night: Best Long Shot Bets, Odds & Picks (8/13)

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UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz is set to get underway this Saturday at Pechanga Arena in San Diego, California. While this card features a lot of up-and-comers in the UFC promotion, the main event features a scrap between bantamweight veterans Marlon Vera and Dominick Cruz in a fight with potential title-shot implications down the line.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card.

These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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Ode Osbourne vs. Tyson Nam

In the third fight of the prelims, we have a flyweight bout between Ode Osbourne and Tyson Nam. Coming into this scrap as a 2/1 underdog, we are rolling with Nam to knock out Osbourne.

While Nam is just 2-3 since joining the UFC, that record does not tell the whole story. Those three losses were to Sergio Pettis (debut), Kai Kara-France (current #3 flyweight), and Matt Schnell (current #8 flyweight).

To be fair, his two wins are against some relatively low-level fighters (Jerome Rivera and Zarrukh Adashev). However, each of those two wins was via knockout as Nam possesses some crazy striking power for the 125-pound weight class.

Check it out for yourself. So the question is, can Nam repeat that powerful striking against Osbourne?

I believe the answer is yes. We know that Osbourne is capable of being caught, as evidenced by his first-round loss to Manel Kape via flying knee.

While Nam does not have a great win on his resume, neither does Osbourne, as his four UFC wins have come against Zarrukh Adashev, CJ Vergara, Jerome Rivera, and Armando Villarreal (DWCS). Osbourne’s losses are not even as impressive as he lost to Kape (current #13 flyweight) and Brian Kelleher (unranked).

Osbourne’s youth and two-fight win streak are the justification for his betting line, but this fight is mispriced and should be much closer to a pick ’em. I think either of these guys can catch each other, and at 5/1, Nam is certainly worth a stab.

Pick: Tyson Nam to Win via KO/TKO (+500)

Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz

As mentioned in the introduction, this bantamweight bout is the main event of this card. This scrap could have some title implications down the line as Vera is currently the #5 bantamweight contender while Cruz is #8.

Since making his return to the UFC in 2020, Cruz has proven that he still has it by winning each of his non-title fights against Casey Kenney and Pedro Munhoz (current #9 bantamweight). One of the best that the bantamweight division has ever boasted, this fight will be Vera’s biggest test of his career.

While he certainly looks to be ready for it, I am not sure there is justification for the -265 price tag on him. Let us look at Vera’s last four wins.

The first of those came against Sean O’Malley, who is about to take on Petr Yan to try to earn a shot at the title. However, I am not too impressed with that win for Vera as O’Malley rolled his ankle multiple times early in the fight, causing him to stay down and allow Vera to finish him.

Vera’s next win came against Davey Grant, who is just 5-5 in the UFC. His next win came against a retiring Frankie Edgar, who had lost three of his last four fights.

The final win of this stretch for Vera came against Rob Font, which is a good win. However, that win showed some gaps in Vera’s defense as Font landed 271 strikes in that fight.

Boasting a lot more experience and success than Font, Cruz should be able to take better advantage if Vera’s defense is that poor again. I am not trying to take too much away from Vera. He is a very good contender and deserves to probably be a favorite in this fight.

But does he deserve to be a -265 favorite? I do not think so, and I believe that Cruz could still make one last run. Vera has never been finished, so the odds on Cruz to win via decision are +280.

While +280 is not as big of a long shot as I usually throw into these picks, it is the pick I like the most in this main event.

Pick: Dominick Cruz to Win via Decision (+280)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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