UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Vettori Odds, Picks & Predictions
It has been several weeks since we put out a Fight Night article, but we are back! We have two fighters headlining the card that is looking to challenge for another middleweight title fight. This card has a solid balance of veterans, potential contenders, and fresh faces making debuts. Let’s dive in and see if we can get to the window with some winners!
UFC Cannonier vs. Vettori Best Bets
Record:
- ML 11-8-1 (+1.25 units)
- Props 4-8-1 (-3.25 units)
- Parlays 0-8 (-4 units)
- Overall (-6 units)
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success. We are going to look at numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of Distance Strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The main key to this analysis is we will look at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.
Raoni Barcelos (-225) vs Miles Johns (+190)
Raoni Barcelos
- Dist Acc Off: 47.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.51
- Dist Def: 39%
- KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 174 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 21.2%
- Control % Def: 4.7%
Miles Johns
- Dist Acc Off: 37.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.87
- Dist Def: 74%
- KD%: .6% (1 KD out of 149 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 5.6%
- Control % Def: 5.2%
This is an extremely intriguing matchup. Immediately you can see that Barcelos has an abysmal 39% distance defense. To put that in perspective, the UFC average is 63%. That is extremely alarming. Barcelos fights at a higher pace and has a higher accuracy but that defense is too much to pass up. Being that both fighters have a low control % defense, this fight should be fought at a distance. I will be taking Miles Johns +190 specifically because of his defensive advantage.
Check Out Our 2023 U.S. Open Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Predictions >>
Pat Sabatini (-200) vs Lucas Almeida (+170)
Pat Sabatini
- Dist Acc Off: 55.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 7.23
- Dist Def: 55%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 26 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 60.6%
- Control % Def: 19.1%
Lucas Almeida
- Dist Acc Off: 45.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 17.04
- Dist Def: 52%
- KD%: 1.3% (2 KDs out of 144 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 10.9%
- Control % Def: 17.6%
Pat Sabatini has an elite control % offense of 60.6%. This is Sabatini’s only route to victory. Almeida is infinitely superior at a distance. His activity is over double Sabatini’s. In Sabatini’s last 3 fights, he has only fought a total of 6.5 minutes at a distance. I am going to go with Sabatini and his concrete strategy to secure a victory. Sabatini -200 is the pick.
Check Out Our 2023 U.S. Open Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Predictions >>
Manuel Torres (-175) vs Nikolas Motta (+150)
Manuel Torres
- Dist Acc Off: 51.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 19.33
- Dist Def: 62%
- KD%: 4.1% (2 KDs out of 48 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 8.3%
- Control % Def: 8.9%
Nikolas Motta
- Dist Acc Off: 31.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 9.81
- Dist Def: 63%
- KD%: 1.2% (1 KD out of 78 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: .3%
- Control % Def: 5.1%
Manuel Torres has fought a total of 5 minutes and 37 seconds, but he has been exceptional in that small sample size. Motta is a plodder style of fighter with only 9.81 Dist Att/Min. Motta also has no interest in taking the fight to the ground or into a clinch position. I see Torres doing whatever he wants at distance. Torres -175 and Torres by KO/TKO at +165 is definitely in play.
Modestas Bukauskas (-195) vs Zac Pauga (+165)
Modestas Bukauskas
- Dist Acc Off: 36.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 9.34
- Dist Def: 55%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 111 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 2.7%
- Control % Def: 11.1%
Zac Pauga
- Dist Acc Off: 36.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.14
- Dist Def: 73%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 52 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 42.1%
- Control % Def: 1.2 %
I do not see an area in that Bukauskas can take advantage of Pauga. Pauga also has an elite control % offense of 42.1%, which gives him another path to victory. Pauga is the pick and is a considerable value at +165.
Marvin Vettori (-125) vs Jared Cannonier (+105)
Marvin Vettori
- Dist Acc Off: 55.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 13.64
- Dist Def: 51%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 301 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 8.7%
- Control % Def: 2.7%
Jared Cannonier
- Dist Acc Off: 49.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 10.12
- Dist Def: 58%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 257 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.2%
- Control % Def: 5.7%
I think the most surprising statistic between these two fighters is they have zero knockdowns in their last combined 558 distance strikes landed. Cannonier is more defensively sound, while Vettori is known for his granite chin. This fight will be fought at a distance and because of that, I lean toward Cannonier. The advanced statistic profiles of both fighters are similar, but Vettori has been in some absolute wars recently. I have Cannonier +105 and Cannonier by KO/TKO +275.
The Bets
ML Parlay
Parlay Odds: +383
Underdog Parlay
Parlay Odds: +668
Props Parlay
Parlay Odds: +893
You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our next Fight Night article and Happy Father’s Day!! Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!
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