UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Dec 01, 2023

If there was a title fight on this card it would arguably be a top-5 event of the year. I mean the name recognition is incredible. You have numerous storylines that are intriguing to not only casual fans but diehard MMA fans. Not to mention, there is incredible value available in several fights. These matchups will kick off a huge month for the UFC. Letâ€™s dive into UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan.

UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Record:

ML: 52-45-3 (+9.31 units)
Props: 13-33-1 (-3.30 units)
Parlays: 4-26 (+1.79 units)
Overall: +7.80 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's dive into these compelling matchups!!!

Julia Avila (-135) vs Miesha Tate (+114)

Julia Avila

Dist Acc Off: 38.7%
Dist Att/Min: 15.69
Dist Def: 61%
KD%: .9% (1 KD out of 103 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 25.2%
Control % Def: 36.8%

Miesha Tate

Dist Acc Off: 44.2%
Dist Att/Min: 11.88
Dist Def: 58%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 209 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 20.8%
Control % Def: 3.1%

Miesha Tate has had mediocre results in her return to the UFC after five years. Her advanced statistics profile is pretty solid for her age and inactivity. She fights at a moderate pace with above-average distance defense and is versatile enough to get into control positions. Julia Avila has not fought in the UFC in two years but was 3-1 in her four fights. She fights at a higher pace but is able to maintain a respectable distance defense. Her biggest weakness is defensive control %. She has been controlled for 36.8% of her fights and against a savvy veteran like Tate could present problems.

Bet: Miesha Tate (+114)

Joaquim Silva (-310) vs Clay Guida (+250)

Joaquim Silva

Dist Acc Off: 40.8%
Dist Att/Min: 11.37
Dist Def: 53%
KD%: 1.5% (1 KD out of 65 distance strikes)
Control % Off: .6%
Control % Def: 33.1%

Clay Guida

Dist Acc Off: 28.8%
Dist Att/Min: 16.22
Dist Def: 55%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 192 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 15.1%
Control % Def: 11.3%

Clay Guida will be making the walk for his unprecedented 36th UFC fight on Saturday. That is an incredible feat in its own right. His recent form has been fading, 28.8% distance accuracy is near the bottom of the UFC. Guida fights with high activity but that type of pressure is not as relentless as it was 10 years ago. Joaquim Silva fights at a more moderate pace and is significantly more accurate. His biggest concern is his defensive control %. He has been controlled in numerous fights and there is room for pause. He has fought infinitely better competition in recent bouts, so this should be a relief for him. Silva should land cleaner punches and win this fight.

Bet: Joaquim Silva (-310)

Sean Brady (-122) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+102)

Sean Brady

Dist Acc Off: 46.5%
Dist Att/Min: 10.37
Dist Def: 64%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 156 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 43.2%
Control % Def: 2.1%

Kelvin Gastelum

Dist Acc Off: 36.5%
Dist Att/Min: 10.71
Dist Def: 58%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 251 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 13.9%
Control % Def: 6.9%

Sean Bradyâ€™s strategy is pretty straightforward, he wants to get the fight to the ground grind you into oblivion, and possibly submit you. This strategy has worked against everyone except Belal Muhammad, which was an obvious step up in competition. It is hard to say if Gastelum would be able to beat Belal in a fight at this point of his career. Kelvin Gastelum secured a victory in his last fight over Chris Curtis, after a two-year layoff. He looked decent and somewhat sharp against his elusive opponent. This matchup presents a completely different problem, as Brady is not interested in standing up for fifteen whole minutes. Gastelum struggled against the hybrid wrestling style of Robert Whittaker and it makes me feel as if this fight could play out similarly.

Bet: Sean Brady (-122)

Rob Font (-130) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (+110)

Rob Font

Dist Acc Off: 47.4%
Dist Att/Min: 19.47
Dist Def: 53%
KD%: .1% (1 KD out of 594 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 4.7%
Control % Def: 32.8%

Deiveson Figueiredo

Dist Acc Off: 53.4%
Dist Att/Min: 7.77
Dist Def: 52%
KD%: 1.2% (3 KDs out of 235 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 6.8%
Control % Def: 20.6%

Anytime I see a Rob Font fight on the card, I am intrigued. And I am even more intrigued knowing he has a dance partner who will stand and throw punches with him. Font has arguably the best jab in the entire UFC, evidenced by his insane 19.47 distance attempts per minute. Deiveson Figueiredo makes his much-awaited bantamweight debut. He has only fought one other fighter in the last three years and that was Brandon Moreno a record four times. Nonetheless, he is fighting at a much healthier weight and that should affect his performance positively. Figueiredo fights at an incredibly monotonous pace with 7.77 distance attempts per minute. We will see if his power will carry into this weight division against a durable Rob Font. It is a shame this fight is only three rounds because it could be a contender for Fight of the Year.

Bet: Deiveson Figueiredo (+110)

Jalin Turner (-205) vs Bobby Green (+170)

Jalin Turner

Dist Acc Off: 44.3%
Dist Att/Min: 15.34
Dist Def: 37%
KD%: 1.8% (4 KDs out of 218 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 10.2%
Control % Def: 24.4%

Bobby Green

Dist Acc Off: 53.1%
Dist Att/Min: 18.85
Dist Def: 70%
KD%: .4% (2 KDs out of 409 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 8.5%
Control % Def: .7%

Jalin Turner is coming off a back-and-forth war with Dan Hooker. Turner hit Dan with a head kick that would have folded 90% of the UFC roster. Turner has the most unique measurements that the lightweight division has ever seen. He is 6ft 3 with a 77-inch reach. The main concern is he doesnâ€™t really use that reach advantage to his benefit and has arguably the worst distance defense in the UFC. He is getting hit with 63% of all distance strikes thrown. That is beyond alarming. Bobby Green is coming off an upset of Grant Dawson that we saw coming. If you are going to stand and trade with Bobby Green you better have a game plan that you can execute, otherwise, you are going to get a MasterClass on striking. Bobby Green is the only fighter who fights at such a high pace with offensive accuracy and elite distance defense. If Turner cannot get this fight to the ground, it is going to be a long and or short night for him. Bobby Green is my favorite play of the entire card.

Bet: Bobby Green (+170)

Arman Tsarukyan (-298) vs. Beneil Dariush (+240)

Arman Tsarukyan

Dist Acc Off: 41.6%
Dist Att/Min: 13.20
Dist Def: 52%
KD%: .6% (1 KD out of 160 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 43.4%
Control % Def: 8.3%

Beneil Dariush

Dist Acc Off: 45.5%
Dist Att/Min: 12.06
Dist Def: 61%
KD%: .8% (1 KD out of 124 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 46.6%
Control % Def: 7.4%

Arman Tsarukyan is viewed as possibly the new guard in the lightweight division but he has been around since 2019. He is a relentless fighter with an extremely high motor. He only has two losses his UFC debut vs Islam Makhachev and then a highly contested fight vs Mateusz Gamrot. Arman has elite offensive control while also possessing the striking acumen to fight at a distance. Beneil Dariush went on an eight-fight winning streak only to be bested by the boogeyman Charles Oliveira. Dariush matches up well with Arman simply because they share similar strengths and he does have the advantage in defensive discipline. The winner of this arguably will be catapulted to the title picture and the loser will have much work to do. I believe this line is a little wide and too much stock is being put in Dariushâ€™s last fight. He is a 3 to 1 underdog and that is too much.

Bet: Beneil Dariush (+240)

The Bets

ML Parlay

Miesha Tate +114
Sean Brady -122
Deiveson Figueiredo (+110)

Parlay odds: +717 for 1 unit

Favorite Play:

Bobby Green +170 for 2.5 units

Jalin Turner will have to knock Bobby Green out to win this fight and I just do not see that happening. This line is way off.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

Navigate

UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Glossary

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app