UFC Fight Night Dern vs. Hill: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
The UFC is back in the Apex for a smaller Fight Night card this weekend. Eighth-ranked Mackenzie Dern is taking on fourteenth-ranked Angela Hill in the main event. This fight was moved to the main event slot this weekend after Irene Aldana was offered a title shot due to a Julianna Pena injury. It was set to be a three-round fight on the main card last week but has got bumped to a five-round bout. It is the only ranked fight on the card, but several fighters want to entertain the fans on this card. The main event starts at 4 p.m. EDT and the main event starts at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
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UFC Vegas 73 Dern vs Hill: Best Parlay Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Leg 1: Gilbert Urbina Moneyline (-105)
Gilbert Urbina will face Orion Cosce in the welterweight division in the prelims. Urbina will have a four-inch reach and height advantage over Cosce. Both men like to mix things up, but Urbina offers more volume on the feet. Urbina should have the advantage while standing, while Cosce probably has the wrestling advantage. He averages 2.30 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 40% accuracy. Urbina does offer a submission threat and does some wrestling of his own, but he likely tries to keep this fight standing. Cosce offers 2.92 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 3.53 strikes. Urbina lands 6.21 strikes per minute and absorbs 6.34 strikes, so the volume is on Urbina’s side. Cosce does not offer much threat on his feet, so if Urbina can keep this standing, he should have the edge on the scorecards.
Leg 2: Joaquin Buckley Moneyline (-225)
Joaquin Buckley will make his welterweight debut against Andre Fialho. Buckley is moving down a weight division after suffering a knockout loss to Chris Curtis. Going down a weight class was probably the right decision because he is a little undersized at middleweight. If he can make 170 pounds, he should fair well at welterweight.
Buckley will have a two-inch reach advantage and striking advantage over Fialho. Fialho lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.22 strikes per minute. He does not have good head movement and tends to lunge on some punches. That is a recipe for disaster against Buckley. Buckley lands 3.87 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.53 strikes. He is explosive and fast, so Fialho must get a knockout to get past Buckley. Unfortunately for him, he has been knocked out in two consecutive fights. Buckley should get the job done on the feet with his explosive power.
Leg 3: Lupita “Loopy†Godinez Moneyline (-150)
Loopy Godinez is entering this fight on short notice to face Emily Ducote. The bout will be at a 120-pound catchweight due to the short notice nature. That is an advantage for Godinez since she does not have to cut weight. Godinez is a wrestler with decent standup. She lands 3.82 takedowns per three rounds and is good at controlling while on the ground. Ducote has defended all takedowns in her two UFC fights but did not face a wrestler like Godinez.
Ducote is skilled on the feet but has not received a test on the mat in the UFC. She stuffed all of Jessica Penne’s takedowns, but Penne is not known for her wrestling. Ducote lands 6.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 8.17 strikes per minute. She offers lots of volume on the feet but is also hittable. Godinez needs to be offensive with her wrestling to win this fight. She will get beat in the striking unless she can make Ducote have to think about the takedown. Ducote’s defense is already bad, so if Godinez can apply pressure with her wrestling, it will make Ducote’s reactions that much slower. Not having a weight cut should help Godinez perform at her best and get the victory.
Parlay Odds: +370
2023 total: Down 11.14 units
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DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting one unit or less is the best way to attack it. The main card starts at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.