UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs. Imavov Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
It has been two weeks since Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis fought to a razor-thin split decision. This Saturday, we have a Fight Night card flying under the radar. Most casual fans will not be familiar with the majority of the names, but those seem to be the best events to take advantage of.
Let’s dive into this underrated card and our top picks for UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs. Imavov!
UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs. Imavov: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record:
- ML: 61-54-3 (+9.00 units)
- Props: 17-40-1 (+2.10 units)
- Parlays: 5-28 (+5.21 units)
- Overall: +16.31 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Molly McCann (-258) vs. Diana Belbita (+210)
Molly McCann
- Dist Acc Off: 47.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 19.52
- Dist Def: 64%
- KD%: 1.9% (2 KDs out of 101 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 22.4%
- Control % Def: 22.5%
Diana Belbita
- Dist Acc Off: 39.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 21.71
- Dist Def: 56%
- KD%: .2% (1 KD out of 417 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.1%
- Control % Def: 27.6%
Molly McCann is coming off back-to-back first-round submission losses. She has three submission losses in her UFC career. McCann’s game plan is pretty simple: She looks to use her power striking and activity with her wrestling threat to overwhelm her opponents. For her wrestling credentials, I would have assumed she would have a much higher offensive control %. Alas, she does not. Her distance defense is formidable, considering her overall pace. If she leans on her wrestling, she should see success in this fight.
Diana Belbita is coming off an absolute back-and-forth battle with Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Belbita is 2-4 in her six UFC fights and is arguably on the fence of possibly being released if she loses this fight. Belbita fights at an incredible pace, but her distance defense is considerably worse than that of her opponents. Belbita hasn’t shown any desire to throw up submissions when controlled, and that could result in a huge issue if McCann gets her to the ground. I have McCann controlling this fight from start to finish.
Bet: Molly McCann (-258)
Randy Brown (-278) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+225)
Randy Brown
- Dist Acc Off: 42.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.69
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 194 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.6%
- Control % Def: 27.1%
Muslim Salikhov
- Dist Acc Off: 52.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.13
- Dist Def: 65%
- KD%: 1.3% (2 KDs out of 150 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 14.4%
- Control % Def: 15.9%
Randy Brown will make his 17th appearance in the UFC octagon on Saturday. He has won five of his last six fights, with his only loss coming to Jack Della Maddalena. Brown is a long, rangy fighter standing at 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach. He has a solid advanced statistics profile with only one weakness: his defensive control %. Something that stood out to me is that Brown has five UFC losses, four of which resulted in the opponent’s finishes.
Muslim Salikhov is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in June. He was thoroughly controlled on the ground and arguably lost every round. Salikhov fights a plodding pace but is extremely accurate in his striking. He does possess power and a formidable distance defense. My biggest concern is how he will get inside the massive reach advantage of his opponent. Salikhov’s best path to victory is to control Brown or hope to land a big shot.
Bet: Muslim Salikhov (+225)
Renato Moicano (-185) vs. Drew Dober (+154)
Renato Moicano
- Dist Acc Off: 42.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.21
- Dist Def: 53%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 123 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 23.4%
- Control % Def: 31.9%
Drew Dober
- Dist Acc Off: 36.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.98
- Dist Def: 54%
- KD%: 2.8% (4 KDs out of 138 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 3.7%
- Control % Def: 14.4%
Renato Moicano has not fought in 14 months, but his last fight was a masterpiece. He has won three of his last four fights via RNC. He seems to be coming into his own over the last several years. His only loss in his four fights was a five-round beat down by the hands of Rafael Dos Anjos. The most concerning thing about Moicano is his distance defense is below average. That is not a recipe for success against someone like Drew Dober. Moicano cannot stand and brawl with Dober or it will be a disaster.
Drew Dober bounced back with an electric first-round knockout of Ricky Glenn in his last fight. Dober looks to stay active in 2024, as he has fought three times since Moicano last entered the octagon. Dober has recorded a knockdown in each of his last four victories and has been able to finish all of them. Dober has little interest in taking this fight to a control position. He will look to stand and trade in the pocket until he breaks his opponent.
I will go with the more active Drew Dober, as I feel he will be able to land consistently on Moicano and end up finishing him.
Bet: Drew Dober (+154) & Dober Round 1 Finish (+400)
Nassourdine Imavov (-175) vs. Roman Dolidze (+145)
Nassourdine Imavov
- Dist Acc Off: 46.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.36
- Dist Def: 60%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 210 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 21.7%
- Control % Def: 15.1%
Roman Dolidze
- Dist Acc Off: 41.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.91
- Dist Def: 58%
- KD%: 2.1% (4 KDs out of 186 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 28.6%
- Control % Def: 7.1%
Nassourdine Imavov is 4-2-1 in his seven UFC fights. He has fought decent competition in those seven fights: Chris Curtis, Sean Strickland, Joaquin Buckley and Edmen Shahbazyan. Imavov fights at an above-average pace with formidable accuracy. He is technically sound defensively and is moving into his athletic prime at just 28 years old. One concerning thing is he has yet to record a knockdown in his UFC career.
Roman Dolidze is 6-2 in his eight UFC fights. He had an incredible streak of finishes in 2022 and then lost a unanimous decision to Marvin Vettori in 2023. Dolidze’s biggest weakness is his lack of activity. He has above-average power, respectable distance defense, and an offensive control game that has to be respected. This will be his first five-round fight in the UFC. Losing his fight with Vettori doesn’t deter me because the only fighters beating Vettori are champions or title contenders. In my opinion, Dolidze is simply more well-rounded and has the power advantage.
Bet: Roman Dolidze (-185)
The Bets
ML Parlay
Parlay odds: +252 for 2u
Favorite Play:
- Drew Dober by Frist-Round Finish (+400) for 1.5u
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!