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UFC Fight Night Font vs Sandhagen: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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What an incredible card last weekend!! Lewis by first-round KO and Holland by submission was an incredible way to punctuate the night!! UFC 291 will probably go down as the event of the year. Let’s see if we can carry any of that momentum into this weekend!!!

UFC Fight Night Font vs Sandhagen Predictions

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Record

  • ML: 22-14-1 (+7.15 units)
  • Props: 9-16-1 (+3.20 units)
  • Parlays 1-15 (-6.59 units)
  • Overall +3.45 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

Jake Hadley (-192) vs Cody Durden (+160)

Hadley

  • Dist Acc Off: 41.7%
  • Dist Att/Min: 17.09
  • Dist Def: 64%
  • KD%: 1.01% (1 KD out of 99 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 16.7%
  • Control % Def: 39.7%

Durden

  • Dist Acc Off: 46.3%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.94
  • Dist Def: 54%
  • KD%: .8% (1 KD out of 113 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 61.05%
  • Control % Def: .2%

There are two things that stand out in this fight. Hadley has a considerably better distance defense and a horrendous Control % Defense. Both fighters fight at a similar pace with similar accuracy. The biggest difference is Durden is levels above Hadley when it comes to control positions. This gives him a huge advantage in that area. This is pretty clear-cut.

Bet: Durden (+160)

Tatiana Suarez (-360) vs Jessica Andrade (+285)

Andrade

  • Dist Acc Off: 53.71%
  • Dist Att/Min: 21.96
  • Dist Def: 63%
  • KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 311 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 4.1%
  • Control % Def: 4.2%

We do not have enough data over the last three years to build an advanced statistic profile for Suarez. As you can see Andrade is solid in pretty much every category. Unfortunately, she has dropped two in a row and has been finished in both fights. Suarez had a nearly four-year layoff before she finished Montana De La Rosa via guillotine choke.

Suarez’s game plan is simple, drag you to the ground and just drown you in pressure. She is 6-0 in her UFC career and has arguably never been in danger. I do not think this form of Andrade is going to deter Suarez from doing exactly what she wants to do.

Bet: Suarez (-360)

Cory Sandhagen (-340) vs Rob Font (+270)

Sandhagen 

  • Dist Acc Off: 40.24%
  • Dist Att/Min: 16.07
  • Dist Def: 57%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 361 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 16.07%
  • Control % Def: 6.1%

Font

  • Dist Acc Off: 48.5%
  • Dist Att/Min: 20.11
  • Dist Def: 51%
  • KD%: .1% (1 KD out of 586 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 4.7%
  • Control % Def: 18.2%

This fight is going to be fought at an incredible pace. There will be few moments without action. Rob Font is known for having the best jab in the entire UFC. His boxing skills are arguably Top 5 in the UFC. On the other hand, Sandhagen is one of the most creative strikers in the UFC. He will throw kicks, spin attacks, and punches from all angles. Font is one of the few fighters who can match Sandhagen’s output.

One thing that stands out to me is Sandhagen has a respectable offensive control %. This gives him another path to victory that I wouldn’t have originally thought of. Sandhagen is too well rounded for Font and has more tools to pull out the victory.

Bet: Sandhagen (-340)

Bets

ML Parlay

  • Cody Durden (+160)
  • Tatiana Suarez (-360)
  • Cory Sandhagen (-340)

Parlay odds: +329 for 2 units

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!


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