UFC Fight Night Gane vs. Spivac: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Last week’s Fight Night card is easily one of my all-time favorites. The Korean Zombie went out on his shield and his retirement will be a top UFC moment for years. We had an incredible weekend betting-wise. Our ML parlay cashed and Max Holloway struck gold and hit our biggest prop bet of the year. Max by TKO/KO in R0und 3 paid +700! This week we have a clashing of styles in the main event and several other intriguing matchups. Let’s dive in!

Record

• ML: 34-22-1 (+13.35 units)
• Props: 12-21-1 (+7.70 units)
• Parlays 3-18 (+1.63 units)
• Overall +22.68 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

• Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
• Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
• Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
• Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
• Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
• KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
• Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
• Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
• Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

UFC Fight Night Gane vs. Spivac Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Farid Basharat (-390) vs Kleydson Rodrigues (+310)

Farid Basharat

• Dist Acc Off: 56.9%
• Dist Att/Min: 12.88
• Dist Def: 69%
• KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 94 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 48.5%
• Control % Def: 8.7%

Kleydson Rodrigues

• Dist Acc Off: 57.5%
• Dist Att/Min: 12.16
• Dist Def: 57%
• KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 152 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 11.8%
• Control % Def: 18.9%

Both fighters fight at a similar pace with similar accuracy, while Farid has impeccable distance defense. Neither fighter has shown ground-breaking power, they have combined for 1 knockdown in 246 distance strikes. Farid has a clear advantage in control offense and this will more than likely be the path of least resistance. Rodrigues has an 18.9% control defense and that is concerning.

Bet: Farid Basharat by Decision (-115)

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Ange Loosa (-166) vs Rhys McKee (+140)

Ange Loosa

• Dist Acc Off: 42.1%
• Dist Att/Min: 17.06
• Dist Def: 50%
• KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 246 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 17.6%
• Control % Def: 6.1%

Rhys McKee

• Dist Acc Off: 53.1%
• Dist Att/Min; 18.12
• Dist Def: 49%
• KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 117 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 1.1%
• Control % Def: 30.5%

Even though neither Loosa nor McKee possesses fight-altering power, the lack of distance defense and high output by both fighters could turn this into a firefight. Loosa has a respectable control % offense and being McKee is abysmal from a defensive control standpoint, that could be the best possible route to victory. McKee is considerably more accurate and his high output could be a recipe for disaster if Loosa cannot get this fight to the ground.

Bet: Rhys McKee (+140)

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William Gomis (-205) vs Yanis Ghemmouri (+170)

William Gomis

• Dist Acc Off: 38.5%
• Dist Att/Min: 8.19
• Dist Def: 85%
• KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 54 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 27.8%
• Control % Def: 15.2%

Yanis Ghemmouri is making his UFC debut, therefore we do not have enough data to make an advanced statistics profile for him. Yanis has a record of 12-1 with three KOs/TKOs, four submissions, and 5 decisions. He fights out of Climax Fight Academy and looks to put them on the map. Gomis fights at a monotonous pace with only 8.19 distance attempts per minute. His distance defense is arguably the best in the UFC at 85%. To put that in perspective, the UFC average is 63%. Gomis will look to take the fight to the ground and grind Yanis away.

Bet: William Gomis Moneyline (-205)

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Benoit Saint-Denis (-166) vs Thiago Moises (+140)

Benoit Saint-Denis

• Dist Acc Off: 47.2%
• Dist Att/Min: 14.33
• Dist Def: 47%
• KD%: 1.3% (3 KDs out of 103 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 43.9%
• Control % Def: 7.9%

Thiago Moises 

• Dist Acc Off: 31.8%
• Dist Att/Min: 9.33
• Dist Def: 64%
• KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 86 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 25.4%
• Control % Def: 18.3%

Benoit’s main concern is his distance defense, but Moises’ below-average accuracy and plodding pace may not be able to take advantage of that. Saint-Denis checks every other box in this fight. He is more accurate, fights at a higher pace, possesses more power, and is the better grappler.

Bet: Benoit Saint-Denis Moneyline (-166)

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Manon Fiorot (-198) vs Rose Namajunas (+164)

Manon Fiorot 

• Dist Acc Off: 40.6%
• Dist Att/Min: 16.83
• Dist Def: 74%
• KD%: .1% (1 KD out of 354 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 14.5%
• Control % Def: 2.1%

Rose Namajunas

• Dist Acc Off: 36.1%
• Dist Att/Min: 10.10
• Dist Def: 65%
• KD%: .1% (1 KD out of 225 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 10.1%
• Control % Def: 6.7%

Fiorot edges out Rose in pretty much every category. She is more accurate, fights at a higher pace, has better distance defense, and has superior control percentages. Rose has the advantage of experience when it comes to higher-profile fights. Also, Rose will be moving up to Flyweight for the first time in her career, so she will naturally be the faster fighter. The issue is her lack of activity can easily cost her rounds and this is a three-round fight with little margin for error.

Bet: Manon Fiorot Moneyline (-198)

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Ciryl Gane (-192) vs Sergey Spivac (+160)

Ciryl Gane 

• Dist Acc Off: 64.8%
• Dist Att/Min: 9.40
• Dist Def: 59%
• KD%: .1% (1 KD out of 464 distances strikes)
• Control % Off: 9.6%
• Control % Def: 9.2%

Sergey Spivac

• Dist Acc Off: 41.2%
• Dist Att/Min: 12.11
• Dist Def: 59%
• KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 118 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 51.1%
• Control % Def: 7.1%

This is a classic clash of styles, but as we look closer it is not as polarizing as you would think. Usually, when it is grappler vs. striker there will be huge discrepancies on both sides. However, both fighters have the same distance defense, and shockingly Spivac fights at a significantly higher pace. Gane is without a doubt a sniper, and his 64.8% distance accuracy shows that. Spivac is an incredible grappler and has an elite-level control % offense. I cannot get out of my head how lost Gane looked against Jon Jones and I’m not sure how that affected his psyche. Spivac has finished his last four fights inside of two rounds (one submission and three KOs/TKOs).

Bet: Sergey Spivac Moneyline (+160) and Spivac Round 1 finish (+550)

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The Bets

ML Parlay: 

• Sergey Spivac (+160)
• Manon Fiorot (-198)

Parlay Odds: +291 for 1.5 units

Lottery Ticket Parlay:

• Sergey Spivac (+160)
• Manon Fiorot (-198)
• Benoit Saint-Denis (-166)
• William Gomis (-205)
• Rhys McKee (+140)
• Farid Basharat (-395)

Parlay Odds: +2705 for 0.5 units.

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