UFC Fight Night Gane vs. Tuivasa: Parlay Odds & Picks (2022)
Ciryl Gane will headline a card in his home country as the UFC makes its debut in France. The event will take place in Accor Arena in Paris, and the crowd will be behind their countrymates to the fullest. The first couple of fights on the main card are likely to result in fireworks, which the matchmaker’s surely had in mind. This parlay features two French fighters and a fight between two former middleweight title challengers.
Leg 1: William Gomis money line (-215)
Gomis will be fighting Jarno Errens, and both will make their UFC debut in the featherweight division. This fight was added less than two weeks ago, so neither guy has had much time to prepare for this fight. Gomis fights out of Paris and makes his UFC debut in his home country. Gomis has won eight consecutive fights after losing two of his first four. In his last fight, he listened to his corner and fought an intelligent fight. That is a sign of things slowing down for him as he gets more comfortable in the cage. He uses kicks frequently but is not afraid to fight in the clinch or shoot a takedown.
Errens is typically a boxer who throws some kicks. He is 13-3-1, with two of his losses by decision and one by submission. Gomis on short notice should have an advantage over Errens on short notice. Gomis should win this on volume if it makes it to the judges.
Leg 2: Robert Whittaker vs. Marvin Vettori does not go to decision (-250)
Both men have fought the current champion twice in their careers and fell short both times. However, every fight went the distance, and three of the four were five-round contests. Both men’s last four fights have all gone to the judges. Whittaker’s last fight was against Adesanya for the belt, and Vettori fought for the belt two fights prior. Against the high-level competition, each tends to try and win on volume.
They have very similar stats: 4.45 strikes landed per minute for Whittaker and 4.35 for Vettori. Whittaker absorbs 3.32 strikes per minute, and Vettori absorbs 3.48 strikes per minute. Vettori averages 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Whittaker only averages .81, but he has a takedown defense percentage of 83%. This fight will likely be contested on the feet and go to the judges to determine the outcome. It is also a three-round fight, which is shorter than the five-round title fights, so both men should have plenty of cardio and durability to make it the distance.
Leg 3: Ciryl Gane money line (-540)
Ciryl Gane’s biggest challenge this weekend may be with himself. There is a lot of pressure in headlining a card in your native country, especially since it’s the UFC’s debut event. He will take on Tai Tuivasa, who has won five straight by knockout. Tuivasa (75-inch reach) will be the shorter man in the cage but not the lighter man. He weighed in at the heavyweight limit of 266 pounds, while Gane (81-inch reach) weighed in at 247 pounds.
Gane is coming off a decision loss to heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou. It was a closely contested fight, but Ngannou took him down four times and racked up enough control time to secure the judges’ scorecards. Gane did look impressive when standing as he landed 63 strikes compared to Ngannou’s 43.
Tuivasa will likely not look for the takedown since he has only attempted three throughout his entire time with the UFC. He likes to brawl and make the fight dirty. That will be his most likely path to victory against Gane. However, Gane has shown the ability to fight at his desired range and rely on his cardio to wear opponents down. Gane’s average fight time is over 16 minutes, while Tuivasa’s is just above six and a half minutes. Gane should wear Tuivasa down throughout five rounds.
Parlay: +143 on DraftKings
DraftKings has the best odds for this parlay. Betting enough to win one unit is the way to go with this parlay. This card starts earlier in the day since it is in Europe. Prelims start at noon EDT, and the main card starts at 3 pm EDT.
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