UFC Fight Night Green vs. Dawson: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Oct 05, 2023

It feels like it has been a month since the last UFC event. It is rare to turn on ESPN+ at about 6 p.m. on a Saturday and not see a Fight Night card. Luckily, we are back this weekend and have an underrated card with a plethora of value. Letâ€™s see if we can get some winners to the window!!!

UFC Fight Night Green vs. Dawson: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Record

ML: 42-34-2 (+9.30 units)
Props: 12-30-1 (-1.95 units)
Parlays: 3-24 (-4.37 units)
Overall: +2.98 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at these compelling matchups!!!

Joaquin Buckley (-170) vs. Alex Morono (+142)

Joaquin Buckley

Dist Acc Off: 27.2%
Dist Att/Min: 14.82
Dist Def: 65%
KD%: 2.12% (3 KDs out of 141 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 2.93%
Control % Def: 14.1%

Alex Morono

Dist Acc Off: 40.1%
Dist Att/Min: 13.81
Dist Def: 63%
KD%: .8% (2 KDs out of 245 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 3.8%
Control % Def: 7.1%

There are several variables that stand out to me immediately. Both fighters have excellent distance defense; Buckley has infinitely more power, and Morono is significantly more accurate. Neither fighter will look to take this to the ground, and the majority should take place at a distance. Buckley is the more athletic fighter, as seen in his KD%, but he lacks accuracy. Morono is more of a volume puncher who wears you down over time. If this fight gets out of the 1st round, I see Morono wearing down Buckley.

Bet: Alex Morono (+142)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-155) vs. Diana Belbita (+130)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Dist Acc Off: 50.1%
Dist Att/Min: 17.33
Dist Def: 68%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 266 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 22.7%
Control % Def: 7.9%

Diana Belbita

Dist Acc Off: 40.2%
Dist Att/Min: 22.15
Dist Def: 59%
KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 332 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 7.5%
Control % Def: 30.7%

Karolina has several advantages in this fight that give her a direct path to victory. She is a more accurate distance strike, a better defensive fighter at a distance, and has a formidable offensive control game. Belbita fights at a torrid pace and can impose her will, but it could be a long night if she doesnâ€™t get Karolina out of there. Karolina has several paths to victory.

Bet: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-155)

Ion Cutelaba (-148) vs. Philipe Lins (+124)

Ion Cutelaba

Dist Acc Off: 38.2%
Dist Att/Min: 11.77
Dist Def: 50%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 73 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 44.7%
Control % Def: 12.4%

Philipe Lins

Dist Acc Off: 42.8%
Dist Att/Min: 10.56
Dist Def: 50%
KD%: .6% (1 KD out of 145 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 28.9%
Control % Def: 5.1%

These fighters are extremely similar in fighting style and fighting pace. They have nearly identical distance accuracy, distance defense, and overall power numbers. Cutelaba has an elite level 44.7% offensive control. Anything over 35% is rare. Cutelaba has infinitely more UFC experience, and I believe that will play a huge factor in this near-even matchup.

Bet: Ion Cutelaba (-148)

Drew Dober (-455) vs. Rick Glenn (+350)

Drew Dober

Dist Acc Off: 34.2%
Dist Att/Min: 15.76
Dist Def: 52%
KD%: 2.5% (3 KDs out of 118 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 2.1%
Control % Def: 12.4%

Rick Glenn

Dist Acc Off: 36.5%
Dist Att/Min: 13.17
Dist Def: 54%
KD%: 2.6% (2 KDs out of 75 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 15.8%
Control % Def: 32.9%

Do not blink because this fight could be over quickly. Dober had his granite chin finally cracked in his last fight vs. Matt Frevola, but Glenn does not possess that same kind of power. I feel this is a get-right situation for Dober, and should be able to pressure Glenn into a brawl. And if that happens, I will take Dober in a heartbeat.

Bet: Dober by KO/TKO 1st round (+165)

Joe Pyfer (-410) vs Abdul Razak Alhassan (+320)

Joe Pyfer

Dist Acc Off: 48.7%
Dist Att/Min: 9.25
Dist Def: 61%
KD%: 5.1% (3 KDs out of 58 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 25.5%
Control % Def: 3.6%

Abdul Razak Alhassan

Dist Acc Off: 40%
Dist Att/Min: 7.67
Dist Def: 62%
KD%: 4.3% (2 KDs out of 46 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 18.8%
Control % Def: 39.2%

It is rare to have two fighters with a knockdown rate of 4% or higher face off. What is even more unique is how wide the line in this fight is. Both fighters fight at a plodding pace with respectable distance defense. Pyfer has an obvious offensive control advantage if he takes the fight there. If this fight stays on the feet, then whoever lands first might be the one who wins. MMA is a volatile sport, and in a fight that has two heavy-handed fighters, I will take the underdog.

Bet: Abdul Razak Alhassan (+320) and 1st round KO (+700)

Grant Dawson (-410) vs. Bobby Green (+320)

Grant Dawson

Dist Acc Off: 47.9%
Dist Att/Min: 13.54
Dist Def: 55%
KD%: 1.2% (1 KD out of 81 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 66.5%
Control % Def: 11.1%

Bobby Green

Dist Acc Off: 53.1%
Dist Att/Min: 18.97
Dist Def: 70%
KD%: .2% (1 KD out of 408 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 8.6%
Control % Def: .7%

This fight is an enigma to me. Grant Dawson has a clear path to victory; get this fight to the ground and grind away a victory. The issue is Bobby Green has only been controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev, and if you take away that fight, in his last 44 minutes and 39 seconds of octagon time, he has been controlled for a grand total of 20 seconds. If Dawson does not get this fight to the ground, he is going to get peppered time and time again.

Bet: Bobby Green (+320)

The Bets

ML Parlay

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-155)
Ion Cutelaba (-148)

Parlay Odds: +175 for 2 units

Underdog Parlay

Bobby Green (+320)
Abdul Razak Alhassan (+320)

Parlay Odds: +1664 for 0.5 unit

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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UFC Fight Night Green vs. Dawson: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)