UFC Fight Night Holloway vs. Allen: Longshot Bets Picks & Predictions (2023)
UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen gets underway this Saturday at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Despite the non-numbered event, this card features a deep lineup with a ton of exhilarating fights set to take place.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.
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UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen: Best Longshot Bets
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Joselyne Edwards vs. Lucie Pudilova
Kicking off this card is a bantamweight bout between Joselyne Edwards and Lucie Pudilova. After starting off her UFC journey in disappointing fashion and losing two of her first three bouts, Edwards has rattled off two straight decision victories over Ramona Pascual and Ji-Yeon Kim.
Preferring to strike, we should expect to see Edwards stay on her feet in this scrap as she boasts a three-inch reach advantage over Pudilova. Additionally, Edwards is the more clinical striker between the two, landing 5.61 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy compared to Pudilova’s 4.17 at 37%.
Neither fighter typically prefers to grapple, with both staying under 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes. This factor bodes well for the longer Edwards, who is expected to utilize that reach to keep Pudilova at distance and rack up significant strikes throughout the three-round bout.
Making her UFC debut in 2019, Pudilova started off with a 2-1 record before dropping four straight fights. This losing streak led to her release from the promotion and subsequent signing with Oktagon MMA in the Czech Republic.
After going 5-1 in Europe, the UFC re-signed Pudilova and she immediately collected a TKO victory over Wu Yanan. While it is a nice story, Yanan is 1-5 in the UFC and does not have anywhere near the reach or striking ability that Edwards possesses.
Look for Edwards to utilize that reach and clinical striking to rack up points while keeping Pudilova at distance en route to a decision victory.
Pick: Joselyne Edwards via Decision (+180)
Dustin Jacoby vs. Azamat Murzakanov
On the main card, there is an exciting light heavyweight bout set to take place between the number 14 contender Dustin Jacoby and number 15 Azamat Murzakanov. Carrying the confidence of a fighter who has seen his hand raised in all 12 of his professional fights, Murzakanov has been dominant since making his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series.
In the UFC, Murzakanov is now 3-0 with three straight knockout victories over Matheus Scheffel, Tafon Nchukwi, and Devin Clark. On the flip side, Jacoby also boasts an impressive resume, although he is coming off a split-decision loss to Khalil Rountree Jr.
In a similar fashion to Pudilova, Jacoby first made his UFC debut back in 2011 but lost each of his first two fights, which led to an eight-year hiatus from the promotion. Since making his return in 2020, Jacoby has gone 7-1-1.
With Jacoby’s kickboxing background and Murzakanov’s knockout streak, this fight has all the makings of a potential banger. However, Murzakanov is a much more accurate striker, landing at 60% accuracy versus Jacoby’s 46%.
Additionally, he is better at defending and rolling with the punches. Jacoby can even the playing field with his five-inch reach advantage, although that could just promote Murzakanov to utilize his grappling that we have yet to see in the UFC. Whichever way the fight goes, the number 15 contender may be too overwhelming for Jacoby.
Pick: Azamat Murzakanov Inside the Distance (+250)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.