UFC Fight Night Kattar vs. Allen: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
The featherweight division takes center stage in the main event at the UFC Apex on Saturday night. Fifth-ranked Calvin Kattar will fight for his spot against six-ranked Arnold Allen in a five-round fight. This card does not have much name value, but it features many veterans and up-and-comers looking to move up in their divisions. The smaller cage will be a factor, and more action is the outcome. The prelims start at 4 p.m. EDT on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7.
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Leg 1: Phil Hawes money line (-175)
This bout will be the featured event on the prelims and will happen at the middleweight limit. Phil Hawes is the shorter fighter but has a slight reach advantage of one inch. Roman Dolidze is 10-1, with his lone loss coming last year when he lost by a unanimous decision to Trevin Giles. Both fighters look for takedowns frequently, but there is a massive discrepancy in takedown defense. Hawes has defended every takedown in the UFC, while Dolidze has only defended 37% of takedowns. Both men average more than two takedowns per 15 minutes, but Hawes should be able to land more.
Hawes should also be physically stronger than Dolidze and is a much better striker. He lands 5.68 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.43. Dolidze lands 2.46 strikes but absorbs 1.45 strikes per minute and has a 49% accuracy. Hawes has the advantage in this matchup and should get the victory.
Leg 2: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa does not go to decision (-250)
Both men have an average fight time below 10 minutes. At heavyweight, that is not surprising. Jared Vanderaa is also on a four-fight losing streak, but the heavyweight is not a deep division, so he remains in the UFC. Waldo Cortes-Acosta won Dana White’s Contender Series in August by TKO and is undefeated. He will be making his debut in the UFC but has fought in Bellator previously in 2021. He owns a boxing record of 6-4 and should have a clear advantage while standing.
Vanderaa tends to get hit even if he is landing his punches. He lands 5.23 strikes per minute and absorbs 5.84 strikes per minute. He has five losses in the UFC, four happened inside the distance, and one was by decision to Andrei Arlovski. Cortes-Acosta likely gets the knockout, but these big men with power can shut each other’s lights off at any moment.
Leg 3: Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen does go to decision (-135)
The UFC could not have picked a better fight for the main event. Calvin Kattar and Arnold Allen will perform on Saturday night. Kattar is primarily known for his boxing but does wrestle when it is in his favor. He had two takedowns when he dismantled Giga Chikadze in a five-round unanimous decision victory. Kattar’s last four fights have been five-round bouts, and they all went to decision. Arnold Allen has not been in a five-round fight but has gone into the third round in eight UFC fights (9 total UFC fights). Of those eight fights, six of them went to a decision.
Kattar has proven his cardio is at an elite level, but Arnold Allen has not. He has not shown any indication that it is not good enough to go five rounds, but it is a question mark in this fight. The oddsmakers have it right by making this a toss-up because it is a tough fight to call. The bout going to the judges is likely, as Kattar has shown his durability. Arnold Allen should be up for the task, and if he does not get the victory, it will not be because he gave up. Kattar may have the advantage while standing, but Allen will try to turn it into a scrappy affair. The judges may have to decide this crazy competitive fight.
Parlay: +282 on DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting enough to win one unit is the best way to attack it. The main event starts at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
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