UFC Fight Night Luque vs. Dos Anjos: Odds, Picks & Predictions
We have been on an incredible run in the last two weeks! We nailed our parlay last week for a whopping +6.58 units and picked a solid underdog in the main event of Dana White’s Contender Series.
This week, there is a very intriguing card to choose from with a main event that should be action-packed. We are a week away from Sean O’Malley vs. Aljamain Sterling, but let’s not lose sight of the value right in front of us. Let’s dive in!
UFC Fight Night Luque vs. Dos Anjos: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record
- ML: 26-15-1 (+11.95 units)
- Props: 9-16-1 (+3.20 units)
- Parlays 2-15 (-.01 units)
- Overall +15.15 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last several relevant fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.
Hakeem Dawodu (-230) vs. Cub Swanson (+190)
Hakeem Dawodu
- Dist Acc Off: 47.5%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.13
- Dist Def: 62%
- KD%: .2% (1 KD out of 364 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 10.3%
- Control % Def: 19.2%
Cub Swanson
- Dist Acc Off: 50.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.29
- Dist Def: 54%
- KD%: .9% (3 KDs out of 328 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 8.6%
- Control % Def: 8.5%
Several things stand out to me at first glance. Neither fighter has world-moving power, but Cub Swanson, on paper, has three times as many KDs on a similar volume. Swanson also fights at a higher pace but is significantly worse defensively at a distance. One thing that probably stood out more than anything was Hakeem Dawodu’s control % defense. A savvy veteran like Swanson can force this fight into the clinch if needed and could steal rounds with that activity. I have trouble laying that kind of juice even with the younger fighter, who is supposedly in his prime.
Bet: Cub Swanson (+190)
Iasmin Lucindo (-192) vs. Polyana Viana (+160)
Iasmin Lucindo
- Dist Acc Off: 40.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.90
- Dist Def: 73%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 132 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 4.4%
- Control % Def: 4.2%
Polyana Viana
- Dist Acc Off: 36.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.58
- Dist Def: 60%
- KD%: .6% (1 KD out of 155 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 6.5%
- Control % Def: 45.3%
These two fighters are excellent defensively at a distance. One thing that really stood out to me is that Iasmin Lucindo has fought more time at a distance in her two fights in the UFC than Polyana Viana has in her eight-fight career in the UFC. Viana’s control defense would be a concern if she didn’t have three submissions in her career, two of which were armbars from her back. Lucindo will want to fight at a distance, but if goated into a scramble fest with Viana, it could get tricky. I will go with the more experienced fighter who has finished 50% of her UFC fights.
Bet: Polyana Viana (+160) & Polyana Viana by Submission (+350)
Vicente Luque (-105) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (-115)
Vicente Luque
- Dist Acc Off: 50.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.15
- Dist Def: 56%
- KD%: .7% (3 KDs out of 376 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.3%
- Control % Def: 21.2%
Rafael Dos Anjos
- Dist Acc Off: 45.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 13.50
- Dist Def: 55%
- KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 198 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 51.4%
- Control % Def: 7.2%
The fact this fight is even taking place after it was reported that Vicente Luque suffered significant brain trauma from the Geoff Neal knock out a little over a year ago is mind-boggling. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at the profiles. Luque fights at a significantly higher pace with better accuracy. This isn’t really surprising, as Rafael Dos Anjos has always been a clinch-style fighter who can really overwhelm an opponent in his range. Luque’s control % defense is concerning, especially since Dos Anjos is elite in that area. Even though Dos Anjos has an insane amount of miles on him, he has only been finished once in the last seven years. And that was arguably in a fight he was winning against Rafael Fiziev.
Bet: Dos Anjos (-115) & Dos Anjos Inside the Distance (+275)
The Bets
Props Parlay
Parlay odds: +1587 .5u
ML Parlay
Parlay Odds: +442 1.5u
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!