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UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz Odds, Preview & Betting Guide (2022)

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The UFC hits the road again this weekend, heading southwest from Las Vegas to Pechenga Arena in San Diego, CA. Coming off a week in which every fight on both cards ended inside the distance, this one has a lot to live up to for the promotion’s fourth time in San Diego and first since 2015.

With a prelim and main card full of great action, let’s take a closer look at the main event of the evening.

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Betting Profile: Marlon Vera (19-7-1)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)

Signing with the UFC in 2014 at 21 years of age, “Chito” Vera has been amongst the most active fighters in the bantamweight division, fighting 19 times since. After seeing mixed results initially, Vera has rattled off a record of 902 since 2018, as he’ll step into the octagon, having won three straight on Saturday.

From a metric standpoint, Vera is the clear better striker, holding edges in knockdowns, significant striking volume, and accuracy.

Betting Profile: Dominik Cruz (24-3-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-W)

One of the legends in the UFC, Cruz has fought injury his entire career, fighting just nine times in a career that spans over a decade. From multiple ACL repairs to quad injuries, it’s been one thing after another for a fighter who, to date, has only lost in title fights.

When he steps into the octagon on Saturday, Cruz will hold the edge both in defensive metrics and on the ground, with a takedown average per 15 minutes of 2.88 (vs. .73).

Bottom Line

While it’s easy to see why Vera is the favorite in this fight, I have things much closer than 2/1. For one, Cruz is the more technical fighter and, despite the long career and 8-year age difference, has taken way fewer shots than his tenure might suggest.

A closer look at Vera’s six fights since the start of 2020 aren’t as impressive as would meet the eye, either, as wins over untested Sean O’Malley and aging veteran Frankie Edgar would otherwise make him 2-2 over that span. I’ll gladly take the nearly 2/1 odds on the underdog for a fight I see more of a coin flip.

Best Bet: Dominik Cruz (+190 via DraftKings)

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