UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady Guide (2021)
After back-to-back PPVs, the UFC Apex will play host to back-to-back afternoons of fights on ESPN+ as UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate serves as this Saturday’s slate. Before women go at it in the main, a welterweight bout between two welterweights in Michael Chiesa and Sean Brady serves as the co-main and is the type of fight that could easily be on a PPV card.
Let’s take a closer look at who has the edge as fight night approaches in Las Vegas.
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| Michael Chiesa | +126 | +135 | +135 | +130 |
| Sean Brady | -154 | -155 | -164 | -155 |
Betting Profile: Michael Chiesa (18-5-0)
Last Five Fights
| L | W | W | W | W |
Since joining the UFC via The Ultimate Fighter in June 2012, Michael Chiesa has racked up the bonuses as he’s been one of the most electric fighters in the welterweight division. With big wins over Beneil Dariush, Rafael dos Anjos and most recently Neil Magny, Chiesa is a certified top 10 (#6) fighter within the division for a good reason.
A Purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, 60%+ of Chiesa’s wins have come via submission, as he comes into this fight averaging 3.62 takedowns per 15 minutes to go along with 1.08 submissions per 15 minutes.
Betting Profile: Sean Brady (14-0-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | W | W | W |
With just 14 professional fights in his career, including four within the UFC, Brady has not only yet to lose, but 50% of the time hasn’t allowed his fights to go the distance. A Black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Brady also leans on his grappling, with his last two UFC performances ending via submission.
Though the sample size is much smaller and against far weaker opponents, Brady certainly has the edge here in striking, averaging 4.72 (55% significant) strikes landed per minute.
Bottom Line?
While Brady’s record and dramatic finishes have been impressive, his four-fight sample size inside the UFC I don’t find worthy enough of being this large of a favorite vs. a tested veteran in Chiesa. Based on the early line movement, many agree, as Chiesa’s +135 has shrunk to +126 in some places and is on the move even lower.
I like for Chiesa to bounce back from his recent defeat to Luque with an early finish of his own here against the up and comer who may have been cast into the deep end a bit too early.
Pick: Michael Chiesa +135
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