UFC Fight Night Moreno vs. Royval Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
It is hard to top last week’s PPV and the passing of the torch at Featherweight. It was just an incredible showing by Ilia Topuria and several other prospects on the card.
We follow that up with an action-packed Fight Night card in Mexico City, Mexico. Brandon Moreno headlines against the ever-dangerous Brandon Royval in a possible title eliminator fight. This Fight Night card is stacked from top to bottom and should provide several Fight of the Night nominees.
Let’s dive in!
UFC Fight Night Moreno vs. Royval: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record:
- ML: 66-62-3 (+3.74 units)
- Props: 20-43-1 (+5.20 units)
- Parlays: 5-30 (+1.71 units)
- Overall: +10.61 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Raoni Barcelos (-175) vs. Cristian Quinonez (+145)
Raoni Barcelos
- Dist Acc Off: 45.5%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.26
- Dist Def: 56%
- KD%: .4% (1 KD out of 213 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 18.2%
- Control % Def: 4.8%
Cristian Quinonez
- Dist Acc Off: 39.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.77
- Dist Def: 60%
- KD%: 1.1% (1 KD out of 98 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 2.9%
- Control % Def: 3.7%
Raoni Barcelos has lost four of his last five fights and has been outclassed in every one of his losses. Barcelos started his UFC career off with five straight wins but has only logged one victory in the last 2.5 years. Barcelos has a solid advanced statistical profile, but he is not elite at any one thing. He will have to be up to the test against a much younger fighter who is looking to climb the ranks.
Cristian Quinonez will make his fourth UFC appearance on Saturday. He suffered a submission loss in his last fight against Kyung Ho Kang. Quinonez has little interest in taking the fight to a control position and looks to keep it a distance. A staggering 93.4% of his fight time has been at a distance. Quinonez possesses formidable defense and fights at an average pace. Even though Quinonez is a much less experienced fighter, I cannot take a fighter on Barcelos’ trajectory.
Bet: Cristian Quinonez (+145)
Yazmin Jauregui (-575) vs. Sam Hughes (+425)
Yazmin Jauregui
- Dist Acc Off: 37.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.68
- Dist Def: 60%
- KD%: 1.6% (2 KDs out of 119 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 12.6%
- Control % Def: 4.1%
Sam Hughes
- Dist Acc Off: 41.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.26
- Dist Def: 65%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 140 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 38.9%
- Control % Def: 9.5%
Yazmin Jauregui is the biggest favorite on the entire card at an astounding -575. She is coming off a knockout loss to Denise Gomes in a fight where she was also a heavy favorite of -370. Jauregui has a considerable power advantage in this fight and is considerably more active. This will be her fourth UFC fight. She is 24 years old and is a budding prospect in the strawweight division. How she responds to her first professional loss will be imperative in this fight.
Sam Hughes will make her eighth UFC appearance on Saturday. She is 3-4 in her UFC career but has won three of her last four fights. Her path to victory is quite simple: control, control and more control. She has elite-level offensive control. Hughes fights out of Fortis MMA, which has a plethora of UFC fighters in their gym. Hughes is no slouch at a distance, but if she wants to be victorious, she will not stand and trade with Jauregui.
This line, in my opinion, is way too wide. I will take a flyer on the underdog.
Bet: Sam Hughes (+425)
Raul Rosas Jr (-225) vs. Ricky Turcios (+185)
Ricky Turcios
- Dist Acc Off: 28.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.24
- Dist Def: 54%
- KD%: .8% (1 KD out of 122 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 19.5%
- Control % Def: 28.1%
Ricky Turcios makes his fifth UFC appearance on Saturday and is looking to slow down the inevitable hype train of Raul Rosas Jr. Turcios fights at an insane pace and somehow still manages a decent distance defense. His two victories in the UFC have come via split decision. The alarming concern for me is his abysmal 28.1% defensive control.
Raul Rosas Jr. does not have a large enough sample size at a distance to create an advanced statistical profile. The main thing we will look at is his phenomenal 57.1% offensive control. His path to victory in most of his fights will be his elite-level wrestling. Rosas Jr. has likely learned from his lackluster showing against Christian Rodriguez at UFC 287, where he gassed out almost immediately. Rosas Jr. should be able to secure numerous takedowns and grind out a victory.
Bet: Raul Rosas Jr. to win (-225)
Daniel Zellhuber (-270) vs. Francisco Prada (+220)
Daniel Zellhuber
- Dist Acc Off: 37.5%
- Dist Att/Min: 13.37
- Dist Def: 53%
- KD%: .4% (1 KD out of 237 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 4.3%
- Control % Def: 2.4%
Francisco Prada
- Dist Acc Off: 42.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 7.88
- Dist Def: 50%
- KD%: 2.2% (1 KD out of 45 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 5.1%
- Control % Def: 25.1%
Daniel Zellhuber will make his fifth UFC appearance on Saturday, while still being only 24 years old. Zellhuber is on a two-fight winning streak, with his last fight ending with a submission victory. Zellhuber is a difficult opponent for anyone at lightweight simply because of his 6-foot-1 build. He fights out of Xtreme Couture and is surrounded by some of the best strikers in the UFC.
Francisco Prada will make his third UFC appearance on Saturday and is only 21 years old. Prada’s main concern for me is his lack of activity. Just 7.88 distance attempts per minute is something you would expect of a plodding heavyweight. Zellhuber hasn’t shown much desire to fight in a control position, but if that path presents itself, Prada’s lack of defensive control could present a problem. To win this fight, Prada will need to land a big punch, and I just do not see something like that happening against the more experienced fighter in Zellhuber.
Bet: Daniel Zellhuber (-270)
Yair Rodriguez (-148) vs. Brian Ortega (+124)
Yair Rodriguez
- Dist Acc Off: 46.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 17.21
- Dist Def: 48%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 258 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 2.5%
- Control % Def: 41.5%
Brian Ortega
- Dist Acc Off: 43.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.56
- Dist Def: 45%
- KD%: .6% (2 KDs out of 316 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 8.9%
- Control % Def: 5.5%
Yair Rodriguez is coming off an absolute beatdown by the hands of the former champion Alexander Volkanovski. Yair was completely dominated, and his electric striking was neutralized. Yair has always been an enigma in the featherweight division. He has the talent to be the undisputed champion but he has yet to put it together against the top of the division. His two fights against Max Holloway and the aforementioned Volkanovski are evidence of that. The thing is, when he faces opponents who are not well-rounded, he dismantles them. Yair’s biggest weakness is his inability to get up from a defensive control position, and Brian Ortega has elite-level submissions.
Ortega has one victory in the last five years and two months. He has fought a total of four times. I honestly do not know how he is still ranked so high. Ortega and Yair faced off in 2022 but the fight was stopped early via injury to Ortega’s shoulder. Besides the lack of activity, my main concern with Ortega is that his distance defense is abysmal. In addition, he has a pedestrian offensive control game for someone so dependent on submissions. If he stands and trades with Yair, this fight will end via stoppage.
Bet: Yair Rodriguez (-148) & by KO/TKO (+180)
Brandon Moreno (-298) vs. Brandon Royval (+240)
Brandon Moreno
- Dist Acc Off: 47.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.83
- Dist Def: 55%
- KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 309 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 15.5%
- Control % Def: 14.7%
Brandon Royval
- Dist Acc Off: 40%
- Dist Att/Min: 19.21
- Dist Def: 45%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 136 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 5.6%
- Control % Def: 56.1%
Brandon Moreno returns after what arguably should have been the fight of the year in 2023 against Alexandre Pantoja. Moreno is an extremely disciplined and well-rounded fighter. He has elite-level boxing and movement with a formidable ground game. Moreno has multiple paths to victory in this fight and is the better overall fighter.
Brandon Royval had an absolute electric three-fight winning streak stopped by Pantoja. The Brazilian imposed his will on Royval in a fight that wasn’t even close. Royval fights at a break-neck pace, and that greatly affects his distance defense. I honestly do not see how he competes in this fight with a 45% distance defense (one of the worst in the UFC) and a defensive control % of 56.1%. The blueprint was pretty much laid down in his previous fight and Moreno should have little resistance implementing that.
Bet: Brandon Moreno (-298)
The Bets
ML Parlay
Parlay odds: +372 for 1.5u
Favorite Play:
- Yair Rodriguez by KO/TKO +180
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
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- UFC Fight Night Moreno vs. Royval Odds, Picks & Predictions
Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!