UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moises (2023)
It’s almost Saturday, and that mean another week of UFC action! We have you covered with our best bets of this week’s UFC Fight Night. You can find all of our picks here. And below is a closer look at Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moises.
UFC Fight Night Gane vs. Spivac Best Bets: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moises
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Last week’s Fight Night card is easily one of my all-time favorites. The Korean Zombie went out on his shield and his retirement will be a top UFC moment for years. We had an incredible weekend betting-wise. Our ML parlay cashed and Max Holloway struck gold and hit our biggest prop bet of the year. Max by TKO/KO in R0und 3 paid +700! This week we have a clashing of styles in the main event and several other intriguing matchups. Let’s dive in!
Record
- ML: 34-22-1 (+13.35 units)
- Props: 12-21-1 (+7.70 units)
- Parlays 3-18 (+1.63 units)
- Overall +22.68 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Benoit Saint-Denis (-166) vs Thiago Moises (+140)
Benoit Saint-Denis
- Dist Acc Off: 47.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.33
- Dist Def: 47%
- KD%: 1.3% (3 KDs out of 103 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 43.9%
- Control % Def: 7.9%
Thiago Moises
- Dist Acc Off: 31.8%
- Dist Att/Min: 9.33
- Dist Def: 64%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 86 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 25.4%
- Control % Def: 18.3%
Benoit’s main concern is his distance defense, but Moises’ below-average accuracy and plodding pace may not be able to take advantage of that. Saint-Denis checks every other box in this fight. He is more accurate, fights at a higher pace, possesses more power, and is the better grappler.
Bet: Benoit Saint-Denis Moneyline (-166)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!