UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Damir Ismagulov (2022)
We continued our red-hot streak at UFC 282, finishing the card with yet another profitable night. However, you’re only as good as your next envelope, as our attention now turns to the final card of the year at UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Cannonier.
While there’s a great middleweight bout taking the attention in the main event, there’s a sneaky good lightweight battle brewing in the co-main event. Let’s take a closer look at a pair of killers in Arman Tsarukyan and Damir Ismagulov and how this one might pan out.
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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)
With just two losses since 2015, Tsarukyan continues to be undervalued when it comes to his matchups in the UFC. Losing a tough decision to Gamrot, he now draws another elite fighter in Ismagulov.
However, the metrics favor the Armenian in this one, and he’d be wise to stick to his game plan in this matchup.
Betting Profile: Damir Ismagulov (24-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
Speaking of that elite fighter, Ismagulov has just one loss since 2015, dominating M1 before joining the UFC in December 2018. He is picking up wins against the likes of Thiago Moises and Rafael Alves in the time since he’s taking a step up here versus a proven commodity in Tsarukyan.
Bottom Line
Tsarukyan, who joined the UFC in April 2019, was dealt a bad hand right away when he faced Makhachev, fighting valiantly until dropping a decision. After that, however, he went on to win his next five matches, losing most recently to Gamrot in a closely contested case in June.
Ismagulov, a former M-1 champion, has won five straight decisions to start his UFC career, all of which I believe have come against relative layups in this category. But now the road becomes much steeper.
Tsarukyan not only enters this bout with six years of youth on his side but also with advantages in knockdowns, major striking, and strikes absorbed. Although neither fighter has won a submission in more than five years, he also has a roughly 2-to-1 advantage in takedowns.
The fact that Tsarukyan has these advantages over tougher opposition makes him the obvious favorite in this fight, but I believe his odds should be well above -200.
Best Bet: Arman Tsarukyan (-195 via DraftKings)
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