UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen (2022)
Fresh off of absolutely nailing the UFC 280 card last week in Abu Dhabi, we are back for another great night of fights, this time at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV. While I have another full card of some of the top UFC predictions on the internet, today we break down the main event of the evening between a pair of top 10 featherweights.
Let’s take a closer look at Saturday’s top billing between Calvin Kattar and Arnold Allen, as well as where the fight is likely headed.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Calvin Kattar (23-6-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-L-W-W)
Calvin Kattar has long been regarded as one of the top featherweight prospects, but his time is running out as he enters this fight, having dropped his last two fights and a hair shy of 36 years old. Kattar, who joined the UFC in 2017, has a record of 7-4 up to this point and needs a victory to reclaim a spot in the cherished top five of the division.
In this encounter against Allen, Kattar has the advantage in takedown defense, knockdowns, and significant striking volume per 15 minutes inside the octagon. He does, however, absorb almost four times as many significant strikes, so he must be wary of this while facing a powerful striker in Allen.
Betting Profile: Arnold Allen (18-1-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
Since joining the UFC in 2015, “Almighty†Allen has largely remained unnoticed in the upper-echelon conversations, despite racking up nine straight victories that culminated in a first-round knockout of Dan Hooker in March. The knockout victory—his first inside the distance since 2018, set him up for this matchup with Kattar, his first career main event.
Allen holds the advantage in this contest against Kattar in both striking defenses and on the ground, where he dominates in submission and takedown statistics per 15 minutes. As previously indicated, Allen has also done a far better job of defending himself, taking just 2.22 hits per minute.
Bottom Line
Averaging 2.86 total rounds per fight between the two, both of these guys have a feeling-out process that has resulted in more than 55% of their bouts going the distance. Over their past 10 fights combined, eight have gone the distance, as both are slow starters with nearly limitless gas tanks.
While I lean toward Allen in this matchup, I prefer this one to get left up to the judges.
Best Bet: Fight goes the Distance (-130 via DraftKings)
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