UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos (2022)
After finishing the month of October picking fights at a 74% accuracy rate in my top UFC predictions, we turn the page to November for another great night of fights. At the top, a pair of top 10 women strawweight will go at it, as Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos are set for the main event.
Let’s take a closer look at both fighters and where the odds are headed.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-L)
With the only loss of her career coming against current strawweight champion Carla Esparza, Rodriguez has quite the hit list in her time with the UFC. Since the start of 2021, Rodriguez has won over the likes of Amanda Ribas, Mackenzie Dern, and most recently, Yan Xiaonan via a split decision in March.
Coming into this fight, Rodriguez holds the edge in significant strikes landed and striking defense alone, as the higher-ranked fighter has some ground to make up vs. Lemos.
Betting Profile: Amanda Lemos (12-2-1)
Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)
Lemos also comes into this fight with one of the best fight histories in the division, with just two losses in her career; both coming in the UFC. Prior to an April 2022 loss vs. Jessica Andrade, Lemos had won five straight in the UFC, with three of those wins coming inside the distance. Rare for strawweight, Lemos has a real propensity to end fights early, with four of her last five results coming inside of three rounds.
As eluded to, Lemos comes into this fight with edges across the board in knockdowns, striking, submissions, and takedowns. In some cases, such as takedown averages per 15 minutes, the edges are large (5x), and I think we see Lemos’ talent really shine through in this one.
Bottom Line
With both of these fighters being the same age (35) and having 9 and 8 fights in the UFC, I’m putting more stock than usual into the straight metrics of this fight. They also have a similar history of being tested against the top talent in the division.
Having this fight much closer to even on paper, I’m taking the sizeable underdog in this one.
Best Bet: Amanda Lemos (+180 via DraftKings)
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