UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez (2022)
Another week in the books and another profitable week of my top UFC predictions, as we finish the month of October at a staggering 75% accuracy. Now, we turn to November and start out with a great card from top to bottom. Before a pair of women strawweights go at it in the main event, the co-main event also presents a sneaky good fight.
Let’s take a closer look at a pair of top 15 welterweights in Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez to see how things might shake out in this weekend’s co-main event.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Neil Magny (26-9-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-W-L-W)
Joining the UFC in 2013, Magny is now a veteran of the promotion and has fought a who’s who of killers. With wins over Kelvin Gastelum, Li Jingliang, Robbie Lawler, and Geoff Neal, Magny has built a solid showing in the UFC but has never been able to take that next step.
Coming into this fight, Magny has most of his edges against D-Rod on the ground, with 2x the submission averages, and 3x the takedown averages. He also comings into this fight absorbing more than 2x fewer shots on average.
Betting Profile: Daniel Rodriguez (16-2-0)
Last Five Fights (W-L-W-W-W)
A season three winner on Dana White’s Contender Series, D-Rod has made quiet the run since becoming a full-time UFC fighter in 2020. Including that first win vs. Tim Means, he has accrued a record 7-1, with his most recent win being his most impressive; a decision victory over Li Jingliang.
In this bout vs. Magny, D-Rod holds large edges in both knockdown average per 15 minutes (5x), as well as significant strikes landed per minute (2x). He also holds edges in takedown accuracy and takedown defense, giving himself multiple paths to victory in this one.
Bottom Line
Opening as a +105 underdog, D-Rod has flipped to the favorite and I’m in total agreement with that move. As noted above, he simply has more paths to victory in this fight, and should this fight stay on the feet or go to the ground, he has the edge.
He also has momentum on his side, having won his past four straight fights, and with a win here putting him in contention for the highly-coveted top 10. With the average fight time for these two coming in around 2.4 rounds, I also expect this fight to go the distance.
If Rodriguez can get his points in early, I like for him to grind out the decision win in this one.
Best Bet: Daniel Rodriguez (-105 via DraftKings)
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