Top 3 UFC Fight Night Paris Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (9/3)
The UFC will finally make their way to France this weekend as Accor Arena will play host to the historic event that is UFC Paris: Gane vs. Tuivasa. While there is value to be had throughout this card, there are three fights that I’m keyed on with prop bets I can’t look away from.
Let’s take a closer look.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Robert Whittaker vs. Marvin Vettori
Despite both having the power and skill on the ground to end fights early, we’ve seen a propensity for both of these fighters to let fights drag on. Looking back over their past combined 10 fights, eight have gone the distance, including their last four each.
I also think that the Vettori camp will see their clear path to victory is to get this one to the ground, where The Italian Dream holds clear edges across the board and would be wise to use it. If this plays out, this should offer a ton of ground and pound that makes the clock tick by faster and faster as the fight goes on.
Between the two, the average rounds come in at 3.10, well above the over/under currently set at 2.5.
Bet: Fight goes to Decision – Yes (-250)
Ciryl Gane (10-1-0) vs. Tua Tuivasa (15-3-0)
While I don’t love the idea of taking two heavyweights to go deep, I think there’s value to be had in Gane/Tuivasa going past 2.5 rounds. For someone of his size and stature, Gane tends to lean on his smarts and athleticism to take fights well past 2.5 rounds as he feels out his opponent in the first round or two.
So much so that despite just one title fight of five rounds, Gane’s average rounds per fight is 3.27 with almost a third of his fights going deep. I’d even go as far as to say this hurt him in his title fight loss to Ngannou, as Ngannou was able to pick his spots late and win that fight via unanimous decision.
As for Tuivasa, despite winning four straight via KO/TKO, many are forgetting he started his UFC career 3-3, and his biggest win to date was a victory over an aging Derrick Lewis well past his prime.
Though I’m not sure how this one plays out in the later rounds, I do like for us to find out and think there’s a ton of value in this one going over 2.5 rounds.
Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+120)
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