UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2022)
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen is set to get underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. Despite the non-numbered card, we have some great and entertaining matchups in store.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (10/29)
Phil Hawes vs. Roman Dolidze
The featured fight on the preliminary card is a middleweight bout between Phil Hawes and Roman Dolidze. Hawes lost his first crack at the UFC in 2017 on Dana White’s Contender Series, but got another shot a couple of years later and has not looked back since.
Following that first loss, Hawes has won five of his last six fights with the one loss coming against the #14 middleweight contender Chris Curtis. In that scrap, Hawes was winning the first round rather easily until Curtis caught him with a left hook.
In his one fight since that loss, Hawes dominated Deron Winn as he out-struck him 118-32 while scoring a knockdown and a takedown. In fact, he has landed seven takedowns over his last three wins.
A brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and former NJCAA National Wrestling Champion, Hawes is more than capable of winning a fight on the mat, evidenced by his submission win over Dominic Schober under the BRAVE Combat Federation promotion in 2019. I suspect Hawes could go this route against Dolidze on Saturday, especially considering Dolidze’s mere 37% takedown defense in the UFC.
Pick: Phil Hawes to Win via Submission (+950)
Josh Fremd vs. Tresean Gore
One of the fights on the main card features Josh Fremd and Tresean Gore, two middleweights trying to earn their first win in the UFC. After losing his first two UFC fights, Dana White and Sean Shelby have given Gore another shot with a main card fight against Fremd, and for good reason.
Gore’s power is lethal, despite the results failing to come to fruition thus far. This power was showcased in his first fight against Bryan Battle, scoring two knockdowns and leaving Battle’s face disfigured.
Battle was good enough in rounds one and three to win that scrap, although he barely survived the second round due to Gore’s impressive display of striking. That being said, Battle is a good up-and-comer in the UFC while Gore’s opponent in this fight, Josh Fremd, does not look nearly as promising and probably would not survive a similar onslaught.
In his lone UFC appearance, Fremd was dominated by Anthony Hernandez. In that fight, Hernandez outstruck Fremd 48-31, landed eight of 11 takedowns, and garnered 10 minutes and 45 seconds of control time.
While Gore is capable of taking Fremd to the mat, I believe he will rely on his power and finish this fight rather quickly.
Pick: Tresean Gore to Win via KO/TKO (+350)
Best of luck!
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.