UFC Fight Night Rodriguez vs. Lemos: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

The UFC will again be in the UFC Apex for another round of fights. This card features a women’s strawweight bout with title implications. The third-ranked Marina Rodriguez will fight the seventh-ranked Amanda Lemos in a five-round bout. However, the fights in this parlay occur earlier in the evening, with two on the prelims and the final leg starting the main card. The prelims will begin at 4 p.m. EDT, and the main card will start at 7, per usual.

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Leg 1: Miranda Maverick moneyline (-700)

The first fight in the parlay is a rematch between Miranda Maverick and Shanna Young. It took place in Invicta FC in 2019, and Maverick won via a rear-naked choke. It was a one-round exhibition fight because both women fought multiple times in a one-night tournament. Maverick went on to win the tournament via neck crank. This bout should be similar to their first, as Young has not improved her takedown defense enough to stop Maverick. Young has a 60% takedown defense but has gotten taken down at least once in every UFC fight. Maverick averages 2.1 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has only been taken down by better wrestlers. Young has never landed a takedown in the UFC, so the path to victory is clear for Maverick, and the odds reflect that. It is worth noting that Young missed weight initially but cut her hair to make weight. She would have forfeited a percentage of her purse if she missed weight.

Leg 2: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke moneyline (-210)

Nuerdanbieke will fight Darrick Minner as the featured event on the prelims. Minner is a submission artist with 26 wins and 13 losses. He has won 22 fights via submission but also lost eight via submission. He tends to put himself in precarious situations by chasing after a submission attempt. That is not a recipe for success against Nuerdanbieke, who has 48 fights in his career. He has a lot of experience for a 38-year-old and is known for having an excellent gas tank. All three of his UFC fights have gone 15 minutes, while Minner’s average fight time is just above eight minutes. Should this go into the third round, Nuerdanbieke should have the cardio advantage.

Both men shoot takedowns at a high clip: Nuerdanbieke averages three landed per 15 minutes, and Minner averages 2.46. Either man can end this via submission, but Nuerdanbieke can also win via knockout or TKO, while Minner only has one TKO victory, which came in 2013. Nuerdanbieke has more paths to victory, and his cardio should help him as the fight progresses.

Leg 3: Grant Dawson moneyline (-210)

The first fight of the main card will take place in the lightweight division between Grant Dawson and Mark Madsen. Madsen is a peculiar fighter because he is 38 years old but is undefeated. He is a former Olympian and won the silver medal in Greco-Roman 75 kg at the 2016 games. Madsen has 12 victories, two coming before 2016, and the others took place in 2018 and later. He is entering a fight as an underdog for the first time in his career. There is also a nine-year age difference. In such scenarios, the younger fighter beats the older 70% of the time.

Grant Dawson is more experienced at the age of 28. He has 18 victories, one loss, and one draw on his record, with the loss coming outside the UFC in 2016. Since joining the UFC, Dawson has shown off his slick jiu-jitsu. He submitted Minner, mentioned above, and two other opponents. It is unknown how Dawson’s wrestling will stack up against the former Olympian, but it is worth noting Madsen did not land his only takedown attempt against Clay Guida, who is a capable wrestler in his own right. Dawson’s jiu-jitsu is good enough to end this fight inside the distance if Madsen gives him an opportunity. If it becomes a striking match, Dawson lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.56. Madsen lands 3.77 and absorbs 3.92 strikes per minute. Dawson has more paths to victory if he does not accept being on his back with Madsen controlling him.

Parlay: +149 on DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting enough to win one unit is the best way to attack it. The main event starts at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.

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