UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
What an incredible fight night card.
So far, we’ve hit on our +717 parlay and went 4-2 overall on our six fights. We lost our favorite play in Bobby Green, but there is no shame in taking a stance on how we think a fight will play out. Arman Tsarukyan is living up to the hype with his quick demolition of Beneil Dariush. We have what on paper looks to be the standard lackluster Fight Night before a PPV card but I think we have enormous potential with some underrated prospects on the card.
Let’s dive in.
UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Record:
- ML: 56-47-3 (+10.05 units)
- Props: 13-33-1 (-3.30 units)
- Parlays: 5-26 (+8.96 units)
- Overall: +15.71 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's dive into these compelling matchups!!!
Park Hyun-Sung (-600) vs. Shannon Ross (+440)
Park Hyun-Sung
- Dist Acc Off: 45.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.89
- Dist Def: 60%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 57 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 19.1%
- Control % Def: 11.3%
Park Hyun-Sung has had a blistering start to her UFC career. She has three finishes in three fights, two via ear naked choke (RNC). Park fights slower but has formidable distance defense and above-average accuracy. She also has a respectable offensive control game.
Shannon Ross does not have enough of a sample size to make an advanced statistical profile. She is also on a completely opposite trajectory with three straight knockout losses. She has been knocked down an eye-opening five times in a little over five minutes of distance time. I honestly do not see this playing out in her favor. Park should be able to get the finish with little resistance.
Bet: Park Hyun-Sung by KO/TKO (+110)
Luana Santos (-155) vs. Stephanie Egger (+130)
Stephanie Egger
- Dist Acc Off: 42.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.91
- Dist Def: 58%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 30 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 51.1%
- Control % Def: 16.1%
Stephanie Egger is 3-2 in her past five fights and all five ended inside the distance. She has two submissions and a ground-and-pound finish. Egger has a clear gameplan going into each fight and that is to get the fight into an offensive control position. Her striking pairs well with her offensive control game, simply because she does not spam a bunch of strikes to get a takedown. She is more measured and that can be seen in her accuracy and distance attempts per minute.
Luana Santos won her UFC debut in impressive fashion with a first-round knockout of Juliana Miller. She threw an insane 88 distance strikes in a little less four minutes. Santos has faced little resistance in her career as she has a professional record of 8-1.
I am going to go with Egger who even though has a middling record of 3-3 in the UFC, gets finishes and has an obvious gameplan for each fight.
Bet: Stephanie Egger (+130)
Nasrat Haqparast (-192) vs Jamie Mullarkey (+160)
Nasrat Haqparast
- Dist Acc Off: 41.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.46
- Dist Def: 59%
- KD%: .2% (1 KD out of 419 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 1.3%
- Control % Def: 10.3%
Jamie Mullarkey
- Dist Acc Off: 44.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.39
- Dist Def: 58%
- KD%: .5% (2 KDs out of 367 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 21.4%
- Control % Def: 5.3%
Nasrat Haqparast has a quick turnaround after he fought an absolute war against Landon Quinones on Sept. 9. He fights at an above-average pace with solid accuracy. Haqparast has absolutely no intentions of taking the fight to the ground as is evidenced by his 1.3% offensive control. He has bounced back with two consecutive victories and is looking to continue his success.
Jamie Mullarkey has had a busy 2023, as this will be his fourth fight this year. He is 2-1 with two decision victories and a knockout loss. Mullarkey fights at a slightly slower pace with better accuracy, he also will implement an offensive control game if needed. Mullarkey is a well-rounded MMA fighter. Styles make fights and this has the potential to be the best fight on the card.
I am going to go with Haqparast as I believe his volume could be the difference.
Bet: Nasrat Haqparast (-192)
Khalil Rountree (-205) vs. Anthony Smith (+170)
Khalil Rountree
- Dist Acc Off: 39.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.72
- Dist Def: 56%
- KD%: 2.9% (8 KDs out of 273 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 3.1%
- Control % Def: 3.2%
Anthony Smith
- Dist Acc Off: 54.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.85
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: 1.1% (2 KDs out of 182 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 10.2%
- Control % Def: 12.2%
Khalil Rountree is on the best run of his UFC career. He has won four fights in a row, three by finish and one by split decision. He has legitimate one-punch knockout power and is extremely explosive. Even though he has elite power, he is not a reckless brawler. Khalil has respectable distance defense and has the defensive skill to keep the fight standing.
Anthony Smith is only two years older than Rountree but he has infinitely more mileage on his body. He will be making his 21st walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday. His fight against Jon Jones seems like it was 10 years ago but it was only in 2019. Smith fights at a more moderate pace but has elite accuracy and distance defense. Also, he has an underrated ground game if he needs to take the fight there.
Khalil Rountree is in his prime and is on the precipice of making a run through the light heavyweight division.
Bet: Khalil Rountree (-205) and by first-round TKO/KO (+165)
Song Yadong (-380) vs. Chris Gutierrez (+300)
Song Yadong
- Dist Acc Off: 38.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 10.37
- Dist Def: 64%
- KD%: 2.3% (4 KDs out of 170 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 4.2%
- Control % Def: 9.2%
Chris Gutierrez
- Dist Acc Off: 57.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.64
- Dist Def: 68%
- KD%: .7% (3 KDs out of 386 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 4.5%
- Control % Def: 11.9%
Song Yadong is coming off a masterclass performance against Ricky Simon earlier this year. He looked incredibly sharp and just dominated from start to finish. Song has arguably the best power in the bantamweight division, not named Sean O’Malley. His 2.4% KD rate is something you normally see in heavier-weight classes. I am a little shocked to see Song has a lower offensive distance accuracy.
Chris Gutierrez has elite distance accuracy while throwing above-average volume. Not only that his distance defense of 68% is in the upper echelon of all UFC fighters. He hasn’t fought the competition that Song has faced but he has produced in nearly every fight. The discrepancy in power is imperative in this fight, but the difference in accuracy also matters.
Bet: Chris Gutierrez (+300)
The Bets
ML Parlay
- Stephanie Egger (+130)
- Nasrat Haqparast (-192)
- Khalil Rountree (-205)
Parlay odds: +420 for 1.25 units
Favorite Play
- Chris Gutierrez +300 for 1.5 units
The line is too wide for a fighter who has elite distance defense and accuracy.
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Thanks for reading. If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets.